On December 22, 2023, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico arrived in Moscow for significant discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin. This meeting marks Fico’s first visit to Russia since the onset of the large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, and it holds immense importance due to the impending cessation of Russian gas transit through Ukraine, effective January 1, 2024.
Fico’s visit has been characterized by various European media commentators as indicative of his pro-Russian stance, especially during his 2023 election campaign when he voiced opposition to military assistance for Ukraine. Despite this, after taking office, he pledged not to obstruct the disbursement of EU aid to Ukraine and supported President Volodymyr Zelensky’s peace formula. Interestingly, Slovakia is one of the rare EU countries still purchasing Russian gas, raising eyebrows about its energy dependence and geopolitical positioning.
President Vladimir Putin and his adviser, Dmitry Peskov, confirmed the meeting's scheduling was finalized days before Fico's arrival but refrained from detailing the agenda. Peskov did suggest the topic of gas transit would likely be prominent during their discussions. Fico has previously warned of potential conflicts with Ukraine if gas transit is halted, reflecting the tension surrounding energy supplies.
Serbian President Alexander Vucic outlined the dire situation Slovakia faces due to this upcoming gas transit disruption. He remarked, "Slovakia is facing the most complicated situation due to the expected cessation of gas supplies," emphasizing Slovakia's vulnerability during this precarious juncture.
The existing transit agreement between Ukraine and Russia has been under scrutiny as Ukraine has refused to extend their contract with Gazprom, which expires at the end of this year. Zelensky has explicitly stated, "We will not allow additional billions to be earned on our blood," indicating his government's reluctance to facilitate the transit under current conditions.
Experts have been examining alternative solutions for European gas supply, with mentions of Azerbaijan stepping up as a potential supplier. Reports suggest Slovakia and Hungary are nearing agreements with Baku to secure deliveries equivalent to the gas currently supplied by Russia, aiming to replace the void left by the cessation of transit agreements.
During the meeting, Fico sought to address Slovakia's requirements for gas supply, as the country remains heavily reliant on Russian energy resources. Many analysts believe his mission was both time-sensitive and necessary for Slovakia to avoid energy shortages during winter months. If the discourse results positively, it could reshape Slovakia’s relationship with Russia and provide more favorable terms for continued energy imports.
Following the meeting, there was no indication from either side about any agreements or breakthroughs, highlighting the complex and fraught nature of negotiations surrounding energy dependencies within the EU framework. The situation has left several questions unanswered as Slovakia, and the larger EU community braces for the consequences of halted gas supplies.
Fico’s visit serves to place Slovakia at the intersection of pressing geopolitical and energy debates, where each decision can contribute significantly to the future direction of energy security for Central Europe.
