Recent developments have sparked concerns of a significant political shift within Europe, as far-right parties, particularly Germany's Alternative for Germany (AfD), appear poised for potential power. Polling data revealed by the Washington DC Democracy Institute indicates this far-right faction is leading the charge, with notable influence attributed to billionaire social media mogul Elon Musk, who has actively backed the party.
Musks’s presence has been polarizing, creating waves of support and condemnation alike. The polling results, described as utterly terrifying by Blair McDougall, Labour MP and member of the Commons Foreign Affairs Select Committee, highlight the growing concern surrounding right-wing politics. "Powered by the richest and most irresponsible man on Earth, Germany, of all places, is turning toward the far right," McDougall stated, pointing to alarming trends as the world commemorated the 80th anniversary of the Auschwitz liberation. With many Germans disapproving of Musk’s intervention, the data still reflects his impact—in essence, creating new voters for the far-right party, with 28% indicating they were "more likely" to vote for the AfD because of Musk's backing.
The AfD, with Alice Weidel at its helm, is currently polling just behind the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU), trailing by only two points at 25% to CDU's 27%. Following Weidel’s declaration of a historic day for Germany, the Bundestag's recent acceptance of joint votes with the far-right marked unprecedented collaboration with radical views, shaking up Germany's political norms. This marks the first time the AfD has officially backed legislation since its inception. Meanwhile, the current government, led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, is fumbling, with only 15% support for the Social Democrats (SPD).
With elections now set for 23 February 2025—in response to the faltering government—the results from the Democracy Institute signal troubling times. Political scientist Tarik Abou-Chadi remarked, "We’re in a vicious circle." He notes how the increasing success of far-right parties pressures mainstream parties to shift rightward on immigration, seeking to reclaim voters disenchanted by traditional policies.
Across Europe, this trend paints broader patterns as mainstream conservative parties adopt hardline positions. Reports from France note controversial comments by Prime Minister François Bayrou about immigration led to reactions by far-right actors, affirming their ideological victories. Meanwhile, coalition discussions between Austria's ruling ÖVP and the Freedom Party (FPÖ) indicate the potential for the first far-right-led government there since World War II.
Decades of political conventions against accommodating far-right ideologies are crumbling. Histories of barriers, such as Germany's Brandmauer and France’s cordon sanitaire, are fading as mainstream parties pursue cooperation to cope with the rising radical talk. Yet, this shift often backfires, strengthening far-right factions rather than reclaiming lost support. Abou-Chadi underscored the normalization of far-right parties as votable candidates, emphasizing the political redrawing occurring throughout Europe.
Experts speculate on the possible future of far-right parties dominating the European political scene within the next decade. According to Sarah de Lange, professor of political pluralism at the University of Amsterdam, we're seeing far-right parties scoring up to 30% now, mainstream parties’ share declining. The electoral evidence suggests traditional parties risk becoming victims of the very ideologies they attempt to reflect through accommodation strategies.
“It’s already happened in some countries,” Abou-Chadi warned, referencing the Netherlands and Italy, which have seen radical parties eclipse center-right opposition. From the Czech Republic to the UK, even hardline immigration policies have failed to stem the rise of far-right discourse bolstered by increased public opinion shifts. De Lange comments, It was a mistaken assumption for parties to think ‘going tough’ on immigration would win back votes, highlighting the perilous misjudgment many mainstream parties are making.
While engaging with the far-right might initially appear like recapturing the narrative, it proves more likely to empower those parties outright. These shifts contribute to legitimizing their rhetoric, altering public perception, and thereby reconfiguring the political consequences across the continent.
The looming question over European governance echoes louder as the rise of the AfD is reflective of broader trends. The moment for caution has appeared with warnings from experts like Nathalie Tocci of the Istituto Affari Internazionali, who stated, When moderate parties rule out cooperation with the radical right, citizens know...a vote for the far right is wasted. The question remains: Has the firewall against far-right influence truly crumbled, and what does this mean for future elections across Europe?