When Elon Musk posted on X on December 20 stating the only thing capable of 'saving Germany' was the Alternative for Germany (AfD), he drew attention to this controversial political party which has drifted increasingly to the right since its inception in 2013. Ahead of the snap election set for February 23, the AfD stands second behind the center-right opposition conservatives, having gained support from disillusioned voters, especially within the former East Germany.
The AfD emerged out of discontent, founding itself with former economists and ex-politicians advocating for Germany to abandon the euro. Its anti-immigration sentiments surged during the refugee crisis of 2015, when Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government accepted over one million refugees, many fleeing war-torn Syria. The party openly calls for the deportation of illegal migrants and wishes to abolish Germany’s asylum policy, which is enshrined within the nation's constitution.
During a December 19 interview, Alice Weidel, the AfD co-leader and chancellor candidate, criticized the European Union for its environmental regulations, claiming they threatened Germany's automotive sector. The party promotes the idea of withdrawing from the EU, aiming to dismantle political and economic structures built over decades. Infamously, the AfD has also advocated for strengthening ties with Russia, urging the cessation of military assistance to Ukraine and questioning the anthropogenic nature of climate change whilst pushing for the revival of nuclear energy.
But is the AfD truly extremist? The German authorities describe many of its branches and even youth organizations as openly extremist, with consistent allegations of sympathizing with Nazi ideologies leading to growing concerns. A January 2024 report from investigative media outlet Correctiv indicated the party's connections to right-wing activists reminiscent of the 1930s. Following this report, mass protests erupted across Germany against far-right extremism, with many marching against the AfD.
Weidel dismissed the extremist label, countering such narratives by branding her party as libertarian and conservative. Despite claims of moderation, the AfD's characteristics deeply resonate with extremism, including past remarks from leading member Bjoern Hoecke, whose infamous use of the Nazi phrase 'Alles für Deutschland' at public events only exacerbates public fears. Courts have deemed Hoecke’s actions problematic, even permitting the use of 'fascist' nomenclature against him.
The recent political climate saw the AfD crash to around 10% of the vote during the last national election, dropping from 13% just two years prior. Now, they enjoy around 19% support, becoming one of the main receivers of declining popularity for Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition government.
The backdrop of the AfD’s momentum involves recent events, particularly the attack at the Christmas market in Magdeburg where five individuals, including a nine-year-old boy, lost their lives. Following the December 15 incident where over 200 people were injured, politicians across the spectrum called for improved security measures. The perpetrator, who was apprehended, has ties to Saudi Arabia and has shown extreme views publicly. Investigations have since revealed prior warnings sent to authorities about this individual prior to the attack, which raises serious questions surrounding intelligence failures.
Despite shaking sentiments surrounding national security, it appears the political status quo largely remained intact. A survey by Bild newspaper suggested the conservative CDU/CSU remains the largest party, leading with 31% support, whilst continuing to label the AfD as the second force at 19.5%. This indicates both existing political dynamics and the AfD’s ability to retain relevance as tensions over immigration and security reignite.
Local political response, particularly the AfD's, has been deeply intertwined with the attack. They seized the opportunity to orchestrate rallies post-incident, highlighting the need for stringent immigration reforms and addressing perceived threats from refugees. Weidel and her colleagues publicly condemned the perpetrator's actions as emblematic of failures within the asylum system. At the same time, protests counter to the AfD's rally emerged, emphasizing solidarity and reigniting concentrations on community unity against hate.
The Magdeburg attack garnered attention, with local newspapers criticizing political divisions as damaging following the tragic event. They warned of the inherent risks when far-right rhetoric interconnected with this analysis of tragedy, asserting the need for unified, thoughtful responses to societal crises instead of shallow political maneuvering. This was especially evident as the CDU began proposing more stringent immigration laws tied directly to the attack.
Historically, the national focus on security has increased as past acts of violence and terror stoked fears within arms of the political spectrum. Now, the AfD's association with increased security measures is coming under scrutiny. With February’s election approaching, how they navigate the fallout from this string of events will be pivotal for their legitimacy and public appeal amid severe scrutiny.
The rise of the AfD exhibits the shifting political climate of Germany, particularly under the pressures of rising violence and immigration debates. The increasing attention to the party’s narratives unveils the tensions existing within modern German society, and as discontent deepens, so too might the AfD’s influence expand.
