It was a day of political drama and shifting allegiances in Birmingham, as the Reform UK party kicked off its annual conference against a backdrop of government scandal and rising public discontent. The National Exhibition Centre buzzed with anticipation on September 5, 2025, as party leader Nigel Farage seized the moment to rally supporters, capitalizing on the shock resignation of Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner over a tax underpayment scandal. The timing couldn’t have been more fortuitous for Reform UK, which has been gaining momentum in the polls and now claims to be the party best placed to seize power from a beleaguered Labour government.
Farage, never one to miss an opportunity, brought his headline speech forward by three hours, telling a packed hall that the government was “deep in crisis” and urging his followers to prepare for an early general election in 2027—even though, officially, the next election isn’t expected until 2029. As BBC reporters described, the mood among party members was jubilant, with a palpable sense of confidence that was hard to overstate. The conference, the first of the autumn season, became a showcase for Reform’s growing ambitions and its leader’s trademark bravado.
Angela Rayner’s resignation had sent shockwaves through Westminster. The Deputy Prime Minister, Housing Secretary, and Labour deputy leader admitted to underpaying tax on a flat purchase in Hove, prompting what the Daily Mail called a “bombshell departure.” Her exit forced Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer into an emergency Cabinet reshuffle, exposing what Farage gleefully described as a government “in meltdown.” Farage didn’t mince words, telling his audience, “It screams to a Government that, despite all the promises that this would be a new, different kind of politics, is as bad, if not worse than the one that went before.”
With Labour rocked by scandal and the Conservatives in disarray, Reform UK has sought to position itself as the only credible alternative. Farage’s speech was peppered with populist rhetoric reminiscent of Donald Trump’s campaigns, promising to “make Britain great again” and declaring, “We are the last chance the country has got to get this country back on track.” He painted a picture of a nation in decline, citing “societal breakdown” and “cultural decline,” and claimed that people on the street were telling him, “You are the last chance we’ve got.”
Farage’s confidence is not without foundation. According to the first Techne UK poll since the summer, Reform UK now leads Labour by ten points—31% to Labour’s 21%—potentially handing Farage a massive 107-seat majority if an election were held today. The poll also revealed that confidence in Starmer’s government had plummeted to just 23%, with a significant number of former Tory, Labour, and Liberal Democrat voters switching to Reform since the July 2024 general election. Techne UK’s chief executive, Michela Morizzo, commented, “These are indeed very good times for Reform UK and conversely very difficult times for Labour and the Conservatives.”
Adding to the sense of momentum, former Conservative cabinet minister Nadine Dorries was unveiled as Reform’s latest high-profile defector. Dorries, who had been a Tory for three decades, told supporters, “The Tory party is dead. The time for action is now and I believe that the only politician who has the answers, the knowledge and the will to deliver is Nigel Farage.” She was welcomed on stage by Farage, who called her “a big hire for us.” Dorries’ defection was just the latest in a string of high-profile moves that have left the Conservatives reeling and Reform’s membership swelling to over 240,000, with more than 900 councillors across the country, largely thanks to victories in the May 2025 elections.
Farage outlined a range of policies designed to appeal to voters disillusioned with the status quo. He promised to prosecute shoplifters, overturn Labour’s taxes on non-doms, and to “stop the boats” of illegal immigrants within two weeks of taking office. He also announced plans to establish a “department of preparing for government” by Christmas and to recruit 5,000 candidates for next May’s local and devolved elections. “Folks, it’s happening,” he told the conference, urging members to be ready for the possibility of an early election driven by what he called Labour’s economic mismanagement.
The economic context is certainly challenging. Britain’s long-term borrowing costs have soared to a 27-year high, and Chancellor Rachel Reeves is expected to announce billions in new tax hikes in the November Budget. Farage warned that the “very, very grim” financial situation could force Labour into an early poll, especially with the rise of Your Party—a new left-wing breakaway led by Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana—threatening to further erode Labour’s support. “If I’m right about the temptation of the Left for many Labour MPs, they may well struggle to get through another couple of years,” Farage told The Independent.
Not everyone is convinced by Reform’s pitch. The Conservative response was swift and scathing. Tory shadow chancellor Sir Mel Stride accused Farage of “peddling Jeremy Corbyn style economics and unlimited welfare spending,” warning that Reform’s plans would “blow a colossal back hole in the nation’s finances, paid for by families and businesses through even higher taxes.” He insisted that the new Conservative leadership was “focused on living within our means to deliver a stronger economy and lower taxes.”
Labour, for its part, dismissed Farage’s speech as “the same old parade of complaints we’ve heard before,” with a spokesperson arguing, “His answer to the charge that Reform is a one-man band was to unveil one of the faces of failure from the last Tory government, Nadine Dorries. Farage has proven again today that he is incapable of acting in the best interests of Britain.” Another Labour statement accused Farage of “stuffing his Party full of Tories who crashed the economy and left the British people paying the price,” and likened Reform’s economic plans to those of former Prime Minister Liz Truss, whose brief tenure was marked by market turmoil.
Still, the sense of change in the air was unmistakable at the Birmingham conference. Farage, reflecting on his return to frontline politics last year, pledged, “I will give this everything, I will give this absolutely everything I’ve got. No one cares more about the state of this country than I do. I am determined to do something about it.” Whether Reform’s surge in the polls will translate into lasting political power remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: the party is no longer a fringe force. Its conference, energized by scandal and defection, has set the stage for a political contest that promises to be anything but predictable.
