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Science
13 August 2024

Extreme Weather Drives Up Food Prices Across Canada

Rising temperatures and unpredictable climates threaten the stability of Canada’s food supply and impact consumer costs

Extreme weather events are shaking the very foundations of Canada’s food supply chain, raising concerns for consumers from coast to coast. Prices at grocery stores are being pushed higher due to the aftermath of these climate-driven events, which include wildfires, floods, heat waves, and droughts. Experts are sounding the alarm, indicating the risks are not just immediate, but have far-reaching effects on food availability and cost.

Frank Scali, who serves as the vice-president of industry affairs at Food, Health & Consumer Products of Canada, shared, "Anytime you have major weather-related events, it tends to increase costs." It's becoming clear: as the planet warms and these weather anomalies become more frequent, the costs will not only ripple across industries — they will end up on everyday consumers’ grocery bills.

The dynamics of food production are complex, and as Amanda Norris, senior economist at Farm Credit Canada, explains, extreme weather conditions can harm not just the yield of crops but also invite pest infestations and diseases. "Weather plays such a critical role. Excessive heat or lack of rainfall can alter agricultural output dramatically," she adds. It’s not just limited to growing seasons; the repercussions can stretch along the entire supply chain.

To underline this point, let’s look back to recent history. A 2019 federal government report indicated worrying trends, directly linking increasing temperatures to human influences. This suggests the climate isn’t merely changing; it’s doing so at a pace and scale we’re not adequately prepared for.

Consider British Columbia three years ago. Major floods devastated the province, resulting in the tragic loss of hundreds of thousands of farm animals after heavy rains transformed landscapes and muddied transportation routes. Fast-forward to 2023, where drought conditions significantly disrupted crop production figures from Saskatchewan, creating almost 11% less output compared to optimal conditions. Just two years earlier, the province faced a staggering 47% decline due to extreme heat and drying effects.

These sudden shortages can dramatically inflate food prices. When supply outstrips demand, as we've seen, the shockwaves can force increases on supermarket shelves. This year has been especially tough, showcasing the agriculture industry as it navigates what the Canadian Agri-Food Policy Institute refers to as a “cascade of challenges.” Factors ranging from climate change to rising input costs create layers of complexity for farmers and distributors alike. The strain is evident as survey respondents have flagged extreme weather as one of the foremost risks facing the agricultural sector today.

Tyler McCann, the managing director at the agri-food policy institute, offers additional perspective. He stresses the importance of adapting agricultural practices to bolster resilience against these unpredictable climatic changes. "Using no-till farming methods, for example, helps retain soil moisture during off-seasons," he notes. While these methods can offer hope amid regular disruptions, they’re not foolproof against the extremes and unpredictability of the elements.

Interestingly, the ramifications of extreme weather do not stop at Canada’s borders. Events occurring globally, such as similar droughts or floods elsewhere — say, across Asia — can lead to significant price fluctuations for imported goods. "If there’s extreme weather somewhere else affecting the major wheat-producing countries like China or India, we could face dire consequences here, as supply will tighten across the globe," McCann warns.

For farmers, the consequences of these events are often palpable and immediate. Yet, for those situated along the distribution pathway, like manufacturers and processors, the impact tends to be less direct, though still largely significant. Scali outlines this relationship, explaining how supply chains primarily focus on minimizing costs and, as such, can fall prey to disruptions. Reliance on single-source suppliers or centralized production facilities multiplies risks. Disruption of one segment of the chain can lead to what he calls a "domino effect," deeply affecting food availability down the line.

Lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic have prompted many companies to reconsider their supply chain strategies. The disruptions they experienced led many industry players to take preventive measures, mapping out both their current supply chains and potential alternatives. Scali notes, “It really put everybody a step ahead,” reaffirming the mindset shift within the industry.

The inflationary pressure from these extreme weather events is manifesting right here at home. Just last year saw the cost of iceberg and romaine lettuce skyrocket due to crop shortages precipitated by severe weather events. Similarly, fires across Western Canada have recently closed rail lines critical for product distribution, compounding the issues already faced by suppliers and consumers alike.

But as pressing as immediate adaptations may be, experts urge practitioners to keep one eye firmly on the crisis’s possible future impacts. Seasonal agriculture may adapt to fall short of our expectations, and fluctuated prices will inevitably affect buying patterns among consumers. Everyone will need to bear the consequences as weather-related challenges continue to stretch supply chains to their limits.

Water conservation measures, increased resilience through diversified sourcing, and conscientious farming practices are but some of the recommended strategies to help hedge against the volatility of our climate. Following these routes could help create more stability down the line for both farmers and consumers.

Despite some promising innovations, the climate crisis remains an evolving adversary. And unfortunately, extreme weather occurrences show no signs of abatement. The intersection between climate change and agricultural practices will likely dominate conversations for years to come as we reckon with these challenges. For Canadians, all this points to one simple reality: if the weather continues to wreak havoc on crops both locally and abroad, food prices will inevitably keep rising, directly impacting households across the country.

Canadians are urged to stay informed and proactive as they navigate the complex world of food supply logistics compounded by climate action challenges. The need for everyone — usage of water, soil conservation, sourcing locally — can’t be stressed enough as we all transition through these uncertain times. This isn’t just about farmers reacting; it’s about consumers being attentive and engaged. The climate crisis is not out of reach for any sector, and as we've explored, it seems to seep through every available avenue directly to the dinner plate.

Whether these experiences spur action or merely compliance will depend largely on forthcoming policies and public awareness initiatives. For now, listening to the experts and considering the various influences at play can help shed light on this pressing issue, ensuring everyone plays their part in shaping sustainable practices to endure through these challenging times.

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