Over half a million additional people could die from AIDS over the next decade if U.S. funding is significantly reduced, warned Linda-Gail Bekker, director of the Desmond Tutu Foundation, during a press conference on February 27, 2025. Bekker, who co-authored a study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine, stated, "There will be unnecessary deaths due to the loss of this funding. I predict immense disaster."
This alarming prediction stems from the recent announcement by the U.S. development agency (USAID) about cutting 92% of its foreign program funding, particularly affecting the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (Pepfar). Several local NGOs, previously funded by Pepfar, received emails notifying them of immediate cessation of all activities and contracts.
Bekker's research indicates if the funding evaporates, more than 600,000 people may die from AIDS due to the lack of resources. Even if funding were to remain at half its current level, the study estimates 315,000 additional deaths could occur. "We are very worried. The Trump administration declared war on health care in Africa. We're heading to catastrophe," expressed Yvette Raphael, executive director of the NGO Apha, which supports people living with HIV and AIDS in South Africa.
Despite the dire warnings, the fate of Pepfar hangs by a thread. The funding, previously suspended when Donald Trump returned to the White House, pumped $6.5 billion dollars for 2024. Portions of Pepfar funding depend on Congressional votes and must be extended by March 25. Last year, Congress only approved funding for one additional year, and with the current upheaval, uncertainty looms.
Both Bekker and Raphael voiced their fears for the future of AIDS treatment and support amid budget cuts impacting programs integral to combating this health crisis. Their study, titled "Potential Clinical and Economic Impacts of Cutbacks in Pepfar, South Africa," outlines the potential fallout from loss of U.S. financial assistance. If the current funding is maintained, the outlook could still be grim, but without it, the outlook is bleak at best.
"Too many lives depend on these programs, which are already stretched thin as is. If we don't act now, we risk reversing decades of progress in AIDS treatment and prevention," stated Bekker.
The grim reality is evident as the fight against AIDS stands on precarious ground. Bakker emphasized, "We must mobilize support and advocacy to prevent the cuts proposed by the government, as they threaten not only South Africa’s health but could have global repercussions. Without urgent intervention, we could see catastrophic spikes in AIDS-related deaths. It is now more imperative than ever to raise awareness and garner support for sustaining these invaluable programs."
Many have echoed Bekker's sentiments, emphasizing the much-needed support U.S. funding provides to local health entities operating on the ground. The incoming deadline for Congress to act looms large, creating urgency among advocates and health officials who fear seeing their hard-fought achievements vanishing due to budget constraints.
Looking forward, health advocates remain hopeful for bipartisan support within the U.S. government to secure long-term funding guarantees for programs combating AIDS. They believe continued investment is pivotal for sustaining the health of countless individuals who rely on these programs for their treatments.
"The numbers don't lie—many have lives hanging by the thread of funding support," said Raphael. "We must come together as advocates, health experts, and community members to secure the future of AIDS funding. The time to act is not tomorrow, it’s now."
With lives at stake, the call for action resonates strongly. Only time will tell how governments respond to these urgent pleas, but without immediate attention, the potential death toll from AIDS could rise alarmingly high, leaving thousands grieving lost loved ones.