The financial community is closely monitoring the future of the ruble and dollar exchange rates, particularly as 2025 approaches. According to analysts, the ruble may experience significant fluctuations due to external and internal factors, including the decisions made by central banks and geopolitical events.
Currently, the dollar stands at approximately 103.9 rubles, but forecasts suggest it might drop to around 98.5 rubles by the end of winter 2025. Natalia Milchakova, the chief analyst at Freedom Finance Global, mentions, "The last trading week of December 2024 could be influenced by the Russian Central Bank's decision on the key rate made on December 20." She noted the volatility of the ruble could be heavily impacted by the geopolitical dynamics and economic conditions prevailing at the time.
Throughout 2024, the ruble has shown marked instability, influenced largely by geopolitical tensions and economic sanctions. For example, after hitting lows, predictions suggested the dollar could reach between 105 to 110 rubles under baseline conditions, but if oil prices plummet, some analysts foresee the dollar rising to as high as 170 rubles. This was noted by analysts from Gazprombank Investments, who highlighted the uncertainties of 2025.
Specific occurrences, such as Donald Trump's inauguration and USA's geopolitical maneuvers, were also pointed out as pivotal moments likely to impact the ruble's dynamics. Political and economic decisions made in the United States, particularly surrounding oil prices and mutual relations with Russia, could lead to fluctuated supply and demand for the ruble and dollar. With the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions upcoming on January 29, potential short-term strengthening of the dollar could emerge if they choose to halt rate cuts, per analysts.
A notable mention points out the Russian Central Bank's impending decision on February 14 over their key rate, which could again effect the ruble's value contingent on inflation rates. Should inflation remain high, a raised key rate could bolster the ruble's strength.
Analysts like Mikhail Zeltsar emphasized the complexity of the ruble as it is historically high on volatility indexes. Exogenous elements such as geopolitical circumstances, raw material prices, and existing import-export balances significantly influence its dynamics. He mentions, "Current volatility doesn’t reflect fundamentals but rather psychological reactions to crises. Therefore, forecasts predicting extreme valuations, such as the dollar exceeding 200 rubles, may be largely influenced by prevailing panic rather than crypto-economic realities."
Despite the inherent risks and fluctuations suggested by analysts at Ingostraх Investments, they remain divided on whether the predictions concerning the dollar reaching 150 to 200 rubles hold validity. Factors like sanctions, oil price fluctuations, and government spending are expected to weigh down the ruble more significantly than the dollar's bullish tendencies. A scenario of stable oil prices and geopolitical calm is seen as the best-case for the ruble, potentially keeping the dollar at bay.
Predictions from Gazprombank pointed to three potential scenarios for 2025:
- Base case: 105-110 rubles
- Negative case: up to 120-130 rubles
- Shock case: potentially reaching 170 rubles when oil prices move severely downwards.
Economic pressures brought on by sanctions against Russian financial institutions and declining energy exports contribute to the bearish outlook. Despite some optimism expressed about potential recovery and stabilization, experts continue to stress the high uncertainty surrounding these predictions due to the unpredictable nature of global markets.
These forecasts are also echoed by several renowned economists warning about inflation surges and potential currency devaluation fears if the current trends persist. “Keeping our savings solely in one currency exposes us to expansive risks. Hence, having multi-currency savings allocations minimizes potential losses,” states financial analysts like Andrei Shevchishin.
Overall, as 2025 looms closer, the currency exchange market is characterized by anxiety and guesses, as analysts strive to piece together trends and project the financial pathways through complex domestic and international currents.
