Health experts are raising alarms about the potential pandemic threat posed by bird flu, which has shown alarming signs of mutability as it spreads among various animals and even infects humans across the United States. The deadly H5N1 bird flu strain, which first appeared in China back in 1996, has escalated exponentially over the past four years, presenting itself at previously untouched terrain including the icy reaches of Antarctica, recognized for its penguin populations.
Since October 2021, over 300 million poultry birds have been culled to curb the spread of the virus. The virus has not only affected birds but also 315 different species of wild birds across 79 countries, according to the World Organization for Animal Health. This widespread devastation doesn’t stop there; mammals feeding on infected birds, such as seals, have also suffered mass die-offs, showcasing the extensive impact of this virus.
Things shifted dramatically earlier this year when the virus made its way to dairy cows across the U.S., marking yet another first. "Fifty-eight individuals have tested positive for bird flu this year alone, including two with no known contact with infected animals," the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported. This raises concerns about the virus's potential to spread undetected among humans.
Researchers also indicated fears of hidden human cases. Surveys conducted on dairy workers found antibodies for bird flu among 8 out of 115 tested — pointing to an infection rate of approximately 7%. Meg Schaeffer, an epidemiologist at SAS Institute, stated, "Avian flu is knocking on our door and could begin new pandemic any day." She differentiated the current scenario by citing various factors indicating the significance of the situation.
With the ever-looming threat of pandemic looming large, alarmingly, nearly half of the 904 human cases recorded since 2003 have been fatal according to the World Health Organization, underlining the potential severity of such an outbreak. A prominent opinion piece highlighted by The New York Times echoed these sentiments emphasizing, "A bird flu pandemic would be one of the most foreseeable catastrophes in history." Certainly, the human toll could be incredibly high due to the lack of maternal immunity to the virus.
Despite the current low overall risk to the general public — as emphasized by US health authorities — there remain barriers preventing H5N1 from efficiently transmitting between people. These include the need for the virus to mutate to infect human lungs more effectively. Ed Hutchinson, virologist at the University of Glasgow, pointed out research outcomes now suggest the version of bird flu infecting U.S. cows is merely one mutation away from gaining this capability. “It’s just a simple step away from becoming more dangerous for us,” Hutchinson warned.
An alarming case was also noted last month involving genetic sequencing of a Canadian teenager seriously ill with H5N1, indicating virus evolution exploring improved cell binding methods.
Health professionals, including Hutchinson, stress the precaution of not letting the virus infect too many species. The greater the number of diverse species the virus transmits to, the higher the chance it adapts to infecting humans more successfully.
Nevertheless, not all sentiments around the possibility of pandemic are bleak. Some scientists, such as Tom Peacock from Imperial College London, advise on varied prospects, highlighting the availability of antiviral treatments and existing vaccines as hopeful buffers contrasting the situation from the pandemic onset of COVID-19.
Concurrently, calls for stronger preventative actions are amplifying from researchers urging the government to scale up testing and facilitate seamless information flow between agencies and other countries. Recently, the USDA announced plans to test the entire nation's milk supply for bird flu, particularly concerning is the raw or unpasteurized milk often thought to be contaminated with the virus.
Adding another layer to this situation is Robert F. Kennedy Jr., known for his controversial views on vaccines and pick for health secretary by President-elect Donald Trump. Kennedy is also famously associated with raw milk advocacy, drawing concern among health experts. Schaeffer termed any relaxation of restrictions on raw milk as "unequivocally a terrible idea," adamantly stating it jeopardizes public health significantly.
The breadth of impact from this bird flu strain continues to evolve, and the vigilance of the public, as well as authoritative bodies, is decidedly at the forefront to avert potential disaster from encroaching closer each day.