The excitement is palpable as the NHK Mile Cup (GI, turf 1600m) is set to take place at Tokyo Racecourse on Sunday, May 11, 2025. This prestigious race has a storied history, and this year’s edition promises to be no different, with a strong lineup of contenders vying for the coveted title.
Over the past decade, the NHK Mile Cup has seen notable performances from horses that previously competed in high-stakes races. Specifically, horses coming from the New Zealand Trophy and the Oka Sho have made their mark, with the former group winning three times and the latter twice. This trend highlights the importance of experience in high-level races, as these horses are often able to maintain their composure and perform well on such a grand stage.
In total, three horses from the GII group and two from the GIII group have also managed to secure victories, while no winning horse has emerged from a race below the open class. This indicates that having experience in competitive races is a crucial factor for success in the NHK Mile Cup.
This year, all the runners in the NHK Mile Cup have participated in graded races, with five of them having experience in GI events. Among the favorites is Immigrant Song, who is expected to be a strong contender despite some historical data suggesting caution.
According to the latest odds released by the Japan Racing Association (JRA) on May 10, 2025, Immigrant Song is currently positioned as the second favorite at 5.9x, following Ascoli Piceno, who is the top choice at 2.6x. Ascoli Piceno, a three-year-old colt trained by Yasuo Tomomichi and sired by Maurice, has captured the attention of bettors after winning the Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes.
Immigrant Song, trained by Tetsuei Nabata and sired by Macfi, previously defeated Ascoli Piceno in the New Zealand Trophy, making this matchup particularly intriguing. The odds reflect the competitive nature of the race, with Lands of Chaos, who won the Chartres Downs C, sitting at 7.6x as the third favorite, and Magic Sands at 8.4x rounding out the top four.
However, historical trends suggest that Immigrant Song may face challenges. In the last ten years of the NHK Mile Cup, horses that won the New Zealand Trophy have struggled in this event, with only one victory since the race's inception in 1996. Notably, since the New Zealand Trophy was moved to Nakayama in 2000, horses that won this trial race have not fared well in the NHK Mile Cup, with only Curren Black Hill managing to win in 2012.
The change in venue has raised questions about the suitability of horses that excel at Nakayama for the Tokyo course. Immigrant Song's trainer noted that the horse seemed to perform better at Nakayama, and while he does have a win at Tokyo Turf 1600m, it was in an un-won race, leaving doubts about his aptitude for this specific track.
As the excitement builds for the NHK Mile Cup, it’s essential to analyze the data surrounding the contenders. Historical performance indicates that horses finishing 6th or lower in their previous G1 races have a dismal record of 0-2-2-58, highlighting the difficulty of bouncing back from such results. Total Clarity and Tila Torea fall into this category, making their chances appear slim.
Moreover, horses returning from extended breaks of nine weeks or more have a record of 0-0-0-14, suggesting that those like Meiner Chiquette and Satono Karvalnah Bal, who are coming off long lay-offs, may struggle to find their rhythm.
Interestingly, the article also explores the performance of fillies in this race. While fillies are generally seen as having good compatibility with the NHK Mile Cup, those that finished 10th or lower in their previous races have a record of 0-0-0-10, indicating that Chelsea Art and Voe Voe may face an uphill battle.
In terms of bloodlines, horses sired by Maurice have shown a mixed bag of results. Their record in Tokyo Mile graded races stands at 1-2-1-23, but all of these successes were limited to 2-year-old G3 races. Ascoli Piceno and Alte Voloche are among the Maurice-sired horses in this year’s race, and their performance will be closely watched.
Similarly, horses sired by Silver State have a record of 2-1-3-72 in Tokyo turf mile races, but they have struggled in graded events, notably in the 2023 NHK Mile Cup where the favorites finished poorly. Lands of Chaos, another horse in this category, will need to defy the odds to secure a victory.
As the NHK Mile Cup approaches, the anticipation among fans and bettors is reaching a crescendo. With a mix of historical data, current odds, and the unique characteristics of each horse, the race promises to be a thrilling event. Will Immigrant Song overcome the historical trends against him? Or will Ascoli Piceno prove to be the horse to beat? The stage is set, and all eyes will be on Tokyo Racecourse as these contenders clash in pursuit of glory.
