Donald Trump is set to re-take the White House within weeks, and European leaders will be fiercely competing for who can exert the most influence over his administration. There’s everything to play for – especially with the US policy programme promising to impose ruinous tariffs and withdraw security protections from Europe.
Candidates vying for influence face significant challenges, not least Trump’s well-known capriciousness, which has seen even his closest hand-picked aides fall out of favor quickly. To succeed, they must align with Trump's political agenda and appeal to his ego, all the meanwhile offering something he wants.
French President Emmanuel Macron, facing domestic issues like a hung parliament and government resignations, seems poised to be one of Trump’s foremost interlocutors. He's already achieved diplomatic triumphs, including inviting Trump to the reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral and arranging meetings with Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Macron, leading the EU’s biggest military power, possesses substantial diplomatic finesse.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has been vocal about her intention to be a significant Trumpfluencer. Claiming on social media, "The US-EU axis passes through Italy,” she’s nurtured relationships with Trump surrogates like Elon Musk and Steve Bannon. Although their political perspectives align on issues such as immigration, Meloni’s support for Ukraine differs from Trump's lukewarm stance.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán also hopes for special rapport with Trump. His increasingly authoritarian practices appeal to some of Trump’s inner circle, highlighted by hosting Conservative Political Action Conferences where Trump has been involved. Nonetheless, Orbán's difficulties with the European Union could limit his influence over the US President.
The newly elected UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is aiming to navigate post-Brexit relations without choosing sides. He stated, “I don’t have to choose between the two historic alliances with the US and Europe.” But his left-leaning policies and appeals may hinder connections with Trump’s more rightist administration.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, representing the EU’s largest member state, may not garner much attention from Trump, particularly with looming elections and his lagging poll numbers. Complications arise as Elon Musk, aligned with Trump, shows apparent support for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), raising tensions around Scholz’s leadership.
Ursula von der Leyen, head of the European Commission, could initially appear at odds with Trump due to their differing political ideologies. Nevertheless, her position allows her to negotiate on trade issues, especially involving the US trade deficit with the EU. Trump has threatened to impose tariffs, yet historical precedent suggests there may still be grounds for negotiation.
Mark Rutte, NATO chief and former Dutch Prime Minister, could have one of the most complex relationships with Trump. If Trump decides to retract support for NATO security guarantees, it could jeopardize the alliance integral since World War II. Their past friendship during Rutte's tenure as Dutch PM could help guide their interactions and facilitate continued support for Europe's security.
European leaders are attentively weighing their influence and potential alliances as Trump prepares to reclaim the presidency. The outcomes of these relationships will significantly impact transatlantic ties and strategic alliances moving forward.
