Europe stands at the crossroads of political transformation as 2024 shapes up to be a year of significant electoral change. With the end of the year upon us, nations across the continent are grappling with the consequences of numerous regional and national elections, many of which have only added to the prevailing atmosphere of uncertainty.
Romania has recently found itself caught in the throes of post-election turmoil, following the unexpected annulment of its presidential election’s first round by the Constitutional Court. The country now awaits the decision of when to hold a re-election, reflecting the disarray felt across several other European nations.
Across Europe, the political climate is charged with instability, as over 20 elections this year have yielded fragmented parliaments and vulnerable coalitions, leaving voters increasingly disillusioned. Many citizens are clamoring for change as pressing issues continue to fester without resolution.
Romania’s political upheaval has been underscored by allegations of Russian interference, which allegedly aided far-right candidate Calin Georgescu during the annulled election. Now, pro-European parties are struggling not only to secure a majority but also to establish consensus amid deep-rooted leadership rivalries and policy disagreements.
The situation in Romania mirrors the larger trend of rising far-right influence and increasing dissatisfaction with mainstream parties throughout Europe. Following the European Parliament elections held earlier this year, the far-right parties have gained traction, allowing groups like the Identity and Democracy bloc to flourish. While the European People's Party (EPP) remains the largest coalition, it has lost seats to more diverse, fragmented political forces, complicting legislative decision-making on the EU stage.
Politics took another dramatic turn in November when Ursula von der Leyen narrowly clinched her second term as president of the European Commission. Her slim win marks the troubled state of inter-party negotiations, which have been described as "the lowest in EP history," according to former European Parliament Vice President Jacek Saryusz-Wolski.
Adding to the complexity, both France and Germany, traditionally seen as the pillars of EU governance, are themselves embroiled in stormy waters. France’s President Emmanuel Macron has faced backlash after his party experienced significant losses during July’s snap elections, leading to political gridlock. Meanwhile, Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz has seen his coalition unravel amid fiscal challenges, with early elections now on the horizon for 2025.
Far-right parties now hold governing positions within at least seven EU nations, including Italy, Finland, and the Netherlands. According to the London-based think tank Chatham House, this rising power of Eurosceptics indicates more substantial changes within the governance of the European Council, as many of these leaders advocate for reduced EU authority.
The rise of far-right politics can be attributed to several factors, with economic dissatisfaction standing out prominently. The Eurozone is projected to grow at just 0.8 percent, with countries like Germany entering recession for the second consecutive year. Rising inflation, alongside ballooning energy prices and increased living costs, has kept families financially strained, leading many citizens to demand accountability and changes.
The Ukraine crisis has added another layer to this political shift. Public support for the EU's substantial aid package of roughly $133 billion appears to be waning, particularly as inflation and budget deficits cast shadows over member states' readiness to support Ukraine. Far-right factions have leveraged these sentiments effectively; Slovakia’s recent elections demonstrated the far-right's embrace of anti-military support rhetoric, propelling their rise to power.
The EU’s aggressive climate policies have also sparked backlash, as economic hardship renders ambitious green projects contentious. Farmers across Germany have vehemently protested against Green Deal regulations, echoing similar sentiment across Belgium and France. Estimates from the Paris-based Institute for Climate Economics suggested achieving the EU's climate targets by 2030 would demand nearly 813 billion euros annually, roughly 5.1 percent of the EU's entire GDP—an unbearable cost for many struggling economies.
Migration policy stands at the forefront of public debate, as mainstream parties shift rhetoric to align more closely with far-right narratives to retain voter support. The EU has implemented stricter border controls and fast-tracked deportations, efforts aimed at addressing soaring immigration numbers. Germany reinstated temporary border checks amid growing pressures, with other nations like France and Austria following suit, all jeopardizing the Schengen Zone's free movement principle.
Experts from the French think tank Fondapol have pointed out the conundrums facing progressive leaders. They are stranded between accommodating influxes of migrants, addressing climate change commitments, and sustaining social welfare frameworks strongly tied to low-income communities.
Global dynamics have thrown another curveball, especially with Trump's anticipated return to U.S. politics. With speculations around changes to NATO commitments and limited backing for Ukraine, Europe foresees potential shifts affecting its security strategy, possibly overshadowing economic priorities.
On the other hand, the rise of far-right parties has prompted them to highlight the existing deficiencies within the EU leadership and institutions, rallying voters around nationalist and Eurosceptic agendas. Political scientist Matthijs Rooduijn observes, "What was once considered radical has now become the new normal."
There is no denying it: the elections of 2024 reflect the mounting crises Europe faces, and the continent's future depends on its ability to mend fragmented relationships between its member states and regain trust among voters. The traditional methods of governance no longer suffice; Europe stands on the brink of unprecedented transformation.
