In the wake of escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine, the importance of robust communication systems cannot be overstated. Satellite internet, particularly through Elon Musk's Starlink, has proven to be a game-changer for Ukraine’s military operations, providing critical communication capabilities that were previously targeted and disrupted by Russian forces. However, concerns are mounting regarding the reliance on Musk's network, especially in light of his unpredictable behavior and the implications it holds for Ukraine's sovereignty.
At the Web Summit in Lisbon in 2022, Ukraine's Deputy Minister for Digital Transformation, Alex Bornyakov, highlighted the pivotal role Starlink played in altering the trajectory of the war. “Starlink is the only means for our troops at the front lines to communicate and coordinate,” he noted, emphasizing that such coordination is vital for operational success. As the situation stands, Musk has indicated that there is "no replacement for Starlink," heightening apprehensions within Ukraine and among its allies.
The perilous position of Ukraine's communications infrastructure was brought into sharp focus in early February 2025, when U.S. officials hinted that they might deactivate Starlink if Ukraine did not comply with a raw materials agreement. This revelation ignited a sense of urgency among European leaders to seek alternatives, with countries like Italy also scrutinizing their ties to Musk’s satellite system.
Amidst this backdrop, potential alternatives are beginning to take shape. Eva Berneke, CEO of the French satellite operator Eutelsat, asserts that her company can provide a viable replacement to Starlink for low-orbit communications. "We are the only alternative to Starlink in low orbit," said Berneke. Though Eutelsat's coverage may not have the same capacity as Starlink, Berneke claims they could achieve a similar terminal rollout—40,000 terminals—in just a few months. Stocks for Eutelsat surged fivefold following this announcement, though they later leveled off to a more modest position.
In addition to Eutelsat, smaller European players like SES, Hisdesat, and Viasat are also stepping into the spotlight as potential substitutes for Starlink, all of which are already engaged with Ukrainian communications to some extent. Berneke confirmed ongoing discussions with Ukraine while noting that the focus would primarily be on governmental and mobile network operators rather than individual households.
In Italy, a similarly charged political debate is unfolding. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is at the helm of discussions regarding potential partnerships with Starlink, leading to fears of excessive reliance on Musk's services. Meloni's previous comments about the need for Italy to navigate its relationship with the U.S. post-Trump underscore the delicate balance of international diplomacy and domestic politics. Recently, the Italian Senate raised alarms over a new space law that could prioritize private EU and NATO communications systems in crisis scenarios.
However, opposition figures like Carlo Calenda are skeptical of any long-term partnership with SpaceX, warning that Musk's erratic influence could endanger Italy's strategic communications in the event of a blackout. “We risk handing control of our airspace to Musk,” he cautioned. The concern is underscored by analogies drawn to Ukraine’s dependency on Starlink, suggesting that if shit hits the fan, Italy could find itself similarly at the mercy of Musk's decisions.
The growing entanglement of European nations with Musk's satellite network has sparked discussions about the geopolitical implications of such dependencies. Radosław Sikorski, Poland's Foreign Minister, recently expressed that if SpaceX's reliability falters, nations must look for alternative providers. Sikorski's remarks conjure images of a broader trend, where nations could rapidly seek other options as they recognize the vulnerability of placing vital communication resources in the hands of a single corporate entity.
Simultaneously, the EU is exploring its satellite communication system, Iris2, targeting a launch by 2030. Yet, until then, time is critical, and the clock is ticking for lawmakers and military officials across the continent to establish reliable and secure communication systems beyond Musk's grasp.
As international dynamics evolves with advancing technology, the stakes have never been higher for military and civilian operations alike. The future landscape of communication—especially in conflict zones—will likely remain shifting, as governments and private enterprises strive to strike a balance between the benefits and risks posed by innovative technologies. Whether through Eutelsat or other options, there is now a growing recognition of the need for alternatives to Musk's Starlink, driven not just by the current geopolitical climate but by a desire for security and independence in an increasingly interconnected world.
