Europe is making fervent last-minute appeals to the outgoing Biden administration, urging it to bolster support for Ukraine before Donald Trump assumes office on January 20, 2025. This move aims to solidify Ukraine's stance amid mounting concerns about the prospective president's intentions toward Moscow.
Reports by Bloomberg indicate apprehensions among European leaders and officials about Trump's approach, which may involve hastily negotiating terms with Russia, potentially putting Ukraine at a disadvantage. To mitigate these fears, European leaders are proactively requesting enhanced U.S. military aid, additional sanctions against Russian revenue sources, and stricter limits on the flow of technology advantageous to Russian military efforts.
The urgency of these requests is palpable, particularly after U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently visited Brussels, where he reassured NATO and EU allies of America's commitment to supporting Ukraine. Blinken's visit, marked by sharp criticisms of the extent of past efforts, serves as a reminder of the precariousness of the situation. His statement highlighted, "every dollar at our disposal” would be used swiftly to aid Ukraine before Trump's inauguration.
U.S. commitments continue to hinge on roughly $61 billion allocated by Congress for Ukraine, with the Biden administration pledging to utilize these resources effectively within the remaining timeframe. Initiatives are already underway to impose new sanctions targeting Russia's oil fleet and North Korea, which has reportedly provided support for Russia's military actions.
Time is running out, and Europe is driving its agenda to thwart any unfavorable developments for Ukraine. Given Trump's controversial posture toward Europe and his previous vacillation over supporting Ukraine, the upcoming weeks are deemed "critical to position Ukraine strongly," according to Mark Leonard of the European Council on Foreign Relations.
Claims of potential deals between Trump and Russia suggest Russia may rationalize its occupation of approximately 20% of Ukrainian territory, causing European leaders to scramble for decisive action. Alongside military aid, discussions include granting Ukraine the capability to use Western weaponry to launch strikes on Russian military sites. This is to assist Ukraine's defense against the intensifying Russian assaults on its infrastructure.
Despite these discussions, President Biden has so far withheld approval for Ukraine to strike inside Russia, citing concerns over potential escalation of the conflict. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has echoed this skepticism, expressing worry about the broader consequences of such actions on the battlefield.
French Minister for European Affairs, Benjamin Haddad, articulated hopes for continued American support, emphasizing the necessity of defending against strikes on Ukraine's defenses and infrastructure. Ukraine has expressed interest in deploying British Storm Shadow cruise missiles and French SCALPs for these strikes.
The EU's apprehension about Trump’s presidency underlines their plans to expedite talks with the UK about a new defense pact, anticipating potential dips in American assistance. Currently, the EU has been Ukraine's largest aid provider, contributing about €118 billion since the onset of the full-scale invasion by Russia, yet it still relies heavily on U.S. military resources, including advanced fighter jets and long-range missiles.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, aiming to reinforce Britain’s supportive role, is advocating for $20 billion to be allocated from seized Russian assets to assist Ukraine before Trump takes the reins. Alongside military support, Starmer is calling for authorization for Ukraine to implement Storm Shadow strikes targeting Russian territory.
This confluence of diplomatic activity and military planning highlights Europe’s intensified operations to secure Ukraine’s interests as they brace for the potential ramifications of Trump's return to power. Europe’s outlook has been decidedly cautious, striving to maintain Ukraine's fight against Russia under the looming uncertainty of decreased U.S. support.
The fast-approaching transfer of power serves as both a challenge and opportunity for Ukraine, as European allies rally to maximize resources and leverage their connections within the Biden administration before the door closes. With the specter of Trump on the horizon, the coming weeks will be pivotal for not only Ukraine but also for the strategic balance across the European continent.
