The European Union peacekeeping mission EUFOR ALTHEA has expanded its troop presence in Bosnia and Herzegovina amid escalating tensions and critical constitutional developments threatening the stability of the region. Recent military transport was observed entering Banja Luka, the capital of Republika Srpska, which indicates a proactive step from EUFOR ALTHEA aimed at fostering stability for the benefit of all citizens in the country.
As of March 21, 2025, EUFOR ALTHEA has stationed approximately 1,500 troops in Bosnia since the conclusion of the Bosnian War in 1995. The reinforcements have not been specified in number, but they follow a series of provocative measures by regional leaders, particularly President Milorad Dodik of Republika Srpska, who has called for the Bosnian Serbs to resign from the central police and judiciary.
On March 7, Bosnia’s constitutional court suspended a law that restricted the operations of state-level law enforcement and judicial bodies in the Republika Srpska region. Dodik's push for separation is seen as a violation of the Dayton Agreement, which established the framework for peace in Bosnia and entrenched a delicate power-sharing arrangement among the Bosniaks, Croats, and Serbs within the state.
Additionally, on March 13, the Republika Srpska parliament adopted a draft of a new constitution that notably redefines the entity as a state exclusively for the Serbian populace. This constitution includes contentious provisions that advocate for self-determination, the creation of a distinct army, and the dismantling of the Council of Peoples along with the vice president roles designated for Bosniaks and Croats. Such changes have drawn ire and concern as they conflict with the established tenets of Bosnia's Constitution.
The adoption of this new constitution appears to be a continuation of separatist tensions that surfaced earlier in the year. Reports indicate that international actors, particularly from the United States, have responded with caution. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio remarked that Dodik's actions could "threaten the security and stability of the country." In his discourse, Rubio emphasized the potential risks faced by the region amid these developments.
Parallel to these events, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan engaged with Bakir Izetbegovic, the leader of the Democratic Action Party in Bosnia, on March 21, 2025. Erdogan underscored Türkiye's close monitoring of the situation, stressing that it is vital for tensions to be resolved within the constitutional order and the framework of rule of law. Erdogan also reinforced that Ankara stands firm in its support for Bosnia’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, having issued necessary warnings to Dodik regarding these matters.
During the conversation, Erdogan recognized that the current tensions do not arise from conflict between the constituent peoples but rather from political maneuverings that threaten the established peace. He asserted the need for political parties backing Bosnia's integrity to unite around common fundamental principles to reassure the citizenry.
The backdrop to these events lies in recent actions taken by Dodik, arising after his conviction for defying Christian Schmidt, the international envoy overseeing the implementation of the Dayton Agreement. Faced with judicial ramifications, Dodik has demonstrated an unwavering stance, insisting he would not comply with court or prosecutor summons while asserting the protection of Republika Srpska's police over him. The separationist rhetoric has led national media to label these developments as a "coup" against the constitutional order that has governed Bosnia since the war's conclusion.
This situation has prompted discussions within the international community, with fears that without robust interventions, Bosnia risks returning to the divisions and violence that marred its history. The complexities of both international and domestic politics continue to influence the landscape, with new reports from 2021 even hinting at the potential deployment of Ukrainian peacekeepers to bolster stability within Bosnia, should the situation worsen.
The tensions unraveling in Bosnia and Herzegovina point to critical lessons from the peace transactions of the last decades. As the situation develops, the future of Bosnia remains hang in a delicate balance, alongside the vigilance of regional and international stakeholders to avert a crisis.
Ongoing military support from EUFOR reflects the pressing need for a stabilizing influence in the region, as leaders and citizens alike hope for a coherent resolution that honors the principles of cooperation and peace, letters of the hard-fought Dayton Agreement. The actions of political figures and the responses garnered will undoubtedly shape the narrative of Bosnia and Herzegovina as it moves forward.