The European Union (EU) is making significant efforts to maintain its relevance as the Ukraine conflict continues to affect the geopolitical dynamics of the continent. With the United States and Russia engaging directly over the future of Ukraine, the EU finds itself at risk of being sidelined. European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, are mobilizing to establish the EU's role, particularly through various high-level meetings held across Europe.
A key meeting took place on February 24, when Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha presented Ukraine's defense needs, estimating it would require €66 billion this year. An informal deal previously established had Ukraine covering 40% of its defense costs, with the EU and the U.S. sharing the remaining costs equally. Due to potential shifts in American policies, Ukraine is now prepared to increase its share to 50%, placing greater onus on the EU.
The urgency for these discussions is underscored by comments from European officials, indicating the American administration prefers to see the war resolved within the month, leaving the EU with limited time to position itself for upcoming peace talks. "Ukraine should be in the best possible position for eventual talks with the Kremlin," emphasized some EU diplomats, reflecting the bloc's strategy of supporting peace through strength.
Various meeting locations—from Paris to London and Brussels—have witnessed debates around key strategies, with Macron increasingly at the forefront of EU engagements. One European Union ambassador remarked, "Donald Trump isn’t ‘dealing with institutions,’" hinting at the challenges the EU faces under U.S. political conditions. While there is no expectation for direct representation from European leaders at initial peace talks, discussions are underway to appoint a “Ukraine talks envoy” to secure EU interests.
On the military side, the prospect of deploying European troops to oversee potential cease-fire agreements is being explored, though specifics remain vague. Countries like France, the United Kingdom, and Turkey have shown interest, but caution is warranted, as reservations are voiced by larger nations such as Italy and Poland. The impending change of government in Germany may influence this strategy as well. A EU diplomat expressed concern: "What are we sending our boys [troops] to?" signifying the importance of clarity on troop roles.
To financially support Ukraine’s defense, the EU is exploring multiple avenues. According to the plan presented by Kaja Kallas, most funding will come from EU member states determined by their Gross National Income (GNI), augmented by windfall profits from frozen Russian assets. Despite these conversations, some EU member states still display hesitance; Hungary, for example, poses potential roadblocks owing to its political ties to Russia and demands linked to sanctions.
Recent sanctions against Russia represent another area of contention within the EU framework. The 16th sanctions package, aiming to curb Russia's aluminum exports and other goods, reveals the bloc's continued efforts against Moscow. Yet, support for extending these sanctions is waning, as Hungary threatens to veto measures if certain individuals are not removed from the restrictive lists. This infighting complicates the EU's capacity to leverage sanctions as negotiation tools against Russia.
Upcoming decisions leading to the March 6 EU summit will be pivotal for solidifying funding and military support for Ukraine. The potential for the EU to play a more active role remains closely tied to its financial commitments and the necessity to navigate complex intra-EU politics, especially with countries like Hungary seeking concessions.
While the future of Ukraine's EU membership is tenuous, the path appears more open than ever: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen indicated during her visit to Kyiv on February 24, stating Ukraine could potentially join by 2030—a bold claim within the volatile political environment. Nonetheless, this aspirational goal depends heavily on the consensus of the EU's 27 member states, who each hold veto power over accession processes.
To summarize, the EU's strategy surrounding Ukraine signifies not just its immediate response to the war but also outlines its pursuit of broader relevance on the global stage. EU leaders are poised to take calculated steps to restore their significance, working to align within the transatlantic sphere of influence and establish substantial partnerships, ensuring they are not left out as dynamic geopolitical circumstances evolve.