On January 3, 2024, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot visited Damascus, where they met with Ahmad Sharrah, the leader of the Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), marking the first visit by major EU ministers since the fall of President Bashar al-Assad's regime.
This diplomatic engagement underscored the European Union's renewed interest and potential involvement in supporting Syria's political transition following over a decade of brutal civil war. Baerbock emphasized the necessity for inclusive political dialogue, stating, "What we need now is political dialogue involving all ethnic and religious groups, particularly women," reflecting the EU's commitment to promoting stability and the establishment of peace.
The backdrop of this visit is significant as the Syrian conflict, spanning 13 years, has left the nation fragmented. The fall of Assad’s regime on December 8, 2023, has sparked discussions about the future governance of Syria, particularly the integration of diverse groups within the new political framework.
The importance of including marginalized communities and ensuring fair representation was echoed by both foreign ministers, who expressed their readiness to support Syria. Their collaborative stance aims to prevent external interference, particularly from nations which have historically influenced the Syrian conflict.
Prior to this meeting, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba visited Damascus on December 30, 2023, signaling Ukraine's intent to strengthen ties with the newly established interim government. During his visit, Kuleba underlined the shared experiences of the peoples of Ukraine and Syria, both of which have endured Russian aggression. He commented, "By eliminating Russia's influence, we can stabilize not just Syria, but the entire Middle East and Africa," demonstrating Ukraine's strategic recalibration amid geopolitical tensions.
Ukraine has previously extended military support to Syrian opposition forces and has now shifted focus to humanitarian aid, exemplified by their shipment of 500 tons of wheat flour to Syria, coordinated via the World Food Programme, as they strive to support resistance against the Assad regime and curb Russian influences.
While Ukraine forges closer ties with the Syrian interim government, the dynamics with Russia remain complex. Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov has signaled the importance of maintaining military bases in Syria, which serve as strategic footholds not only for military operations but also as launch points for Russia's influence across the African continent.
The new Syrian leadership's move to appoint former anti-Assad rebel Muhlafi Abul Kasra as Defense Minister on December 31, 2023, signifies the shifting alliances within the country's political spectrum. Abul Kasra's known track record against the Assad regime positions him as a potentially stabilizing force within the new government structure.
This newly formed government, striving to consolidate various rebel factions, aims to present a united front against both internal strife and external pressures, particularly from the Russian regime, which has maintained its military presence and influence over the years.
Since the start of the conflict, Russia has played a pivotal role by supporting Assad with military interventions, and its withdrawal or adjustment of presence will significantly impact the stability of the new Syrian government. Lavrov indicated the need for negotiations between Russia and the interim government about the terms of military base usage and future cooperation.
The broader international community, particularly within Europe, is closely monitoring these developments. The meeting between Baerbock, Barrot, and Sharrah is expected to lay the groundwork for future EU policies aiming to support governance reform and humanitarian assistance.
Experts believe these diplomatic actions herald the EU's engagement not only to address humanitarian needs but to solidify its influence against Russia's aggressive posturing. By recognizing the newly formed government early, the EU aims to shape the dialogue around Syria's reconstruction and eventual stability.
Moving forward, the outcomes of the Baerbock-Barrot meeting could define the European stance on Syria's political future. Ensuring the inclusion of various societal groups and preventing extremist elements from gaining traction remains central to this dialogue.
While the EU remains cautiously optimistic, the entrenchment of Russian interests and the potential for renewed conflict cannot be overlooked. The potential for lasting peace hinges on the ability of the new leadership to navigate these international waters effectively, promoting governance based on respect and collaboration.
The international community's role during this delicate transition is pivotal, and as more nations position themselves strategically, the complexity of the situation will likely intensify, necessitating careful diplomacy and thoughtful engagement.