Brussels, Belgium – The European Union (EU) is treading cautiously as it navigates the uncertain waters of Syria's new leadership following the ousting of Bashar al-Assad. The urgency of determining how to engage with the recently established government contrasts with the imperative to avoid creating another conflict-riddled zone like Libya or Afghanistan. Kaja Kallas, the new EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, leads this delicate balancing act, emphasizing the necessity of aligning actions with principles before providing support.
Addressing reporters following her first Foreign Affairs Council meeting as High Representative, Kallas outlined the EU’s current stance: “It is important to convey the same messages with the countries in the region.” For now, the diplomatic contacts between Brussels and Syria have remained at minimal levels; the EU's head of delegation for Lebanon has only recently traveled to Damascus for preliminary meetings.
Kallas briefed the 27 EU Foreign Ministers after attending discussions over the weekend with various regional stakeholders, including Turkey, the United States, and the UN's Special Envoy for Syria, Geir Pederson. She highlighted the fundamental principles agreed upon during these talks: “integrity and sovereignty of Syria, but also inclusiveness of government, taking account of, in particularly, minorities and women’s rights.” The emphasis is clear: any future governance structure must reflect the diversity of the Syrian populace.
Yet, looming large over these proceedings is Turkey, whose President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been open about his ambitions for territorial influence within Syria. Several EU ministers have articulated the necessity for Syria to distance itself from Russian military influence as part of any constructive dialogue. Dutch Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp made it known, “if Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) wants to see the EU sanctions regime against the Syrian regime lifted, it will have to close the gates of all Russian military bases.”
Kallas reiterated the EU's hard stance, stating, “extremism, Russia and Iran must have no place in the future Syria,” reflecting broader concerns shared among regional leaders. The long-standing sanctions imposed by the EU have affected multiple sectors of the Syrian economy, sectors the EU claims must flourish for the country to begin its path to recovery after years of civil war.
The current EU sanctions include restrictions on arms exports and oil imports, alongside investment freezes affecting the Syrian central bank assets. Notably, Kallas remains optimistic about potential changes, saying, “the EU will have to be ready to adapt the sanctions policy when we see significant steps by Syria.”
Nonetheless, skepticism persists among EU officials concerning HTS, which, though claiming to represent the interests of the Syrian people, has faced accusations of serious human rights violations. “They are saying the right things,” Kallas remarked when asked about HTS’s current rhetoric, “but we will be judging them based on actions, not words.” This is especially poignant considering HTS's dark past as an al-Qaeda affiliate before severing ties derived from its voyage toward legitimacy.
Despite these serious challenges, the EU continues to mobilize humanitarian aid. Since the onset of the Syrian conflict, more than 35 billion euros have been pledged to humanitarian and civil society assistance. The European policies include broad allowances for humanitarian exceptions, ensuring the continued export of necessities like food and medicine to support the beleaguered health system. Just recently, Kallas announced the EU orchestrated the airlift of 100 tons of humanitarian aid to the struggling populace.
Looking to the future, the EU plans to hold its ninth international conference on Syria, focusing on rallying financial assistance and facilitating dialogues with Syrian civil society. This conference offers another platform where pivotal issues can be addressed and aid packages negotiated to support rehabilitation efforts.
With the fate of millions hanging in the balance, the outcome hinges not only on international diplomacy but also on the new leadership within Syria responding constructively to the EU's set principles. The hope is to gradually shift from assessment to action if HTS and others take definitive steps toward building the inclusive future Kallas envisions.
Brussels continues to advocate for strategic caution, eager to witness both improvement on the ground and clarity on the stance of Syria’s new leaders. Will they meet the EU's expectations? Only time will tell.
