Ethiopia's geopolitical maneuvers are increasingly seen as threats to the stability of the Red Sea region, leading to concerns among neighboring nations. Recent developments have spotlighted Ethiopia's efforts to create chaos and undermine peace, particularly aimed at Somalia and Sudan. Over the past 35 years, Ethiopia's strategy has centered on disabling neighboring countries' governments to secure its interests.
The core of this strategy lies in preventing the rise of stable governance structures, especially within Somalia. For Ethiopia, who has historically interfered with Somali affairs, keeping Somalia fragmented serves its ambitions—without strong governance, Somalia cannot challenge Ethiopia's aspirations for power and access to the Red Sea. This interference is often explained by Ethiopia's leaders as necessary for regional stability, but critics argue it creates prolonged instability instead.
Internal politics play a key role as well. Despite one-third of Ethiopia's population identifying as Muslim, many Ethiopian citizens lack representation and the right to choose their government, enabling military rulers to manipulate ethnic and religious divisions to maintain power. This also facilitates Ethiopia's broader regional ambitions of dominance.
Complications arise when external forces enter this already tense situation. Turkey’s recent role as mediator through the controversial Ankara Accord has raised eyebrows. Although Turkey has provided significant humanitarian and military support to Somalia, critics argue its portrayal of Somalia as merely “receiving help” could create disparity, potentially tipping the scales of power toward Ethiopia. If Ethiopia secures rights to the Somali coastline, it could represent not only a significant gain for Addis Ababa but also represent another assault on Somalia’s territorial integrity.
Adding complexity, French President Emmanuel Macron’s discussions with Ethiopian officials about sea access have caused concern. Analysts believe France, facing the rising influence of China in the Horn of Africa, is interested in solidifying its own strategic interests at the expense of Somalia's sovereignty. This dynamic raises alarms about power plays overshadowing the needs and rights of smaller nations caught between larger geopolitical agendas.
Beyond Somalia, Ethiopia’s ambitions have drawn it closer to conflicts with other Red Sea nations, such as Sudan, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. The situation is dire. Experts assert the turmoil within Sudan should not merely be seen as localized unrest but as part of Ethiopia's overall strategy to weaken regional adversaries and extend its influence. The conflict’s consequences raise the question of whether Ethiopia's actions will pose severe threats to stability across the entire Horn of Africa.
Djibouti is also facing the repercussions of Ethiopia's aspirations, as Ethiopia seeks to cut potential support for Djibouti from Somalia. The goal is clear: to isolate Djibouti and assert its regional dominance by diminishing foreign influences from powers like China and Russia. Analysts describe the situation as precarious—Djibouti's strategic location makes it prone to control if Ethiopia’s plans go unchecked.
This growing regional chaos is not just the result of Ethiopia's strategies but also involves actors like the UAE, which have contributed to instability across Yemen and Somalia. These partnerships create fertile ground for Ethiopia to maneuver its objectives, weakening these states and making them susceptible to influence and pressure from the Horn of Africa's most populous nation.
The situation is urgent, and time is of the essence for Red Sea nations. There is growing recognition of the need for unity against Ethiopia's designs, with calls growing for all concerned countries to take collective action. The prospect of long-term peace hinges on the revival of the Somali state — observers believe only with established governance and military strength can Somalia effectively counter Ethiopia's ambitions.
The path for achieving stability must involve regional cooperation rooted deeply within shared objectives. There's little room for complacency; history has shown the dire consequences of indecision against aggression. Now is the time for Sudan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and other Red Sea nations to assert their interests cohesively.
Observers continue to warn against allowing Ethiopia's provocative moves to pass unnoticed. With so much at stake, the urgency for action could not be clearer. Only through ultimate solidarity can the nations of the Red Sea fortify themselves against the possibility of chaos. Regional unity will define the future of peace and stability for this strategically significant part of the world.
