CAIRO – 21 March 2025: Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced on March 20, 2025, that the highly controversial Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) will be officially inaugurated by the next Ethiopian New Year, set to begin in September 2025. According to the Ethiopian News Agency (ENA), Abiy emphasized the monumental significance of this event while addressing parliament.
The GERD, a $4.2 billion project situated in the northwest region of Ethiopia, roughly 30 kilometers from the Sudanese border, has been a focal point of contention among Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan since its construction began in May 2011. The dam is not only crucial for Ethiopia’s energy needs but also aims to provide more than 5,000 megawatts of power once fully operational. It is slated to become Africa’s largest hydroelectric dam, significantly more than doubling Ethiopia’s current electricity output.
Abiy stated, "Furthermore, he underscored the significance of positive discussions with Egypt, adding that Ethiopia will continue to work together with Egyptians for the benefit of the two countries and people," highlighting an intention to foster cooperation amid ongoing tensions.
This ambitious project, measuring 1.8 kilometers in length and 145 meters in height, began generating electricity in February 2022. Ethiopia has consistently maintained that the operation of the GERD will not adversely affect the downstream countries' access to the Nile River's vital waters. However, Egypt, which relies on the Nile for an astonishing 97% of its water supply, perceives the dam as a potential existential threat to its water security.
Since the inception of the dam, there has been an escalating crisis regarding water rights among the three nations. Egypt has repeatedly voiced concerns about its share of water, estimated at 55.5 billion cubic meters. The tension escalated in 2015 when the three countries signed the Declaration of Principles, asserting that neither upstream nor downstream countries should harm each other’s rights or access to the river.
In October 2019, Egypt lodged complaints against Ethiopia, accusing it of impeding final agreements about the dam's water management. Despite calls for mediation, notably invoking Article No. 10 of the Declaration of Principles, no satisfactory resolution has emerged, leading to Ethiopia’s continuous unilateral actions in filling the dam's reservoir.
As negotiations stall, the situation is further complicated by Sudan's fluctuating position, with the country grappling with domestic issues, including ongoing civil conflicts. Sudan's concerns remain about the potential flooding caused by the dam, yet its strategic position makes it precarious amid such a complex dispute.
The GERD's inauguration represents not only a milestone for Ethiopian ambitions in electrification and economic growth but also a critical inflection point in the geopolitics of the Nile. Egypt fears that the agreements surrounding the dam, or lack thereof, could lead to significant reductions in water flow, thereby affecting agriculture and drinking water supplies essential to its population.
Ultimately, the future of the GERD and its implications for Nile Basin countries rest on the balance of cooperation, negotiation, and mutual benefit. Stakeholders urge renewed dialogues to develop actionable agreements to manage the river sustainably while addressing the pressing needs of all involved parties.
