On December 25, 2024, the EstLink 2 undersea power cable, which connects Estonia and Finland, experienced unexpected outages, raising serious concerns about possible external interference. The failure occurred at approximately 12:26 PM local time when the power line was transmitting 658 megawatts of electricity from Finland to Estonia. The incident coincided with the proximity of the Hong Kong-flagged cargo ship, Xin Xin Tian 2, which had recently departed from St. Petersburg and was en route to Egypt's Port Said.
The Estonian system operator, Elering, alongside Finnish counterpart Fingrid, swiftly acknowledged the failure but has yet to pinpoint the exact cause. More than just technical complications, authorities suggested the possibility of sabotage, especially considering the previous incidents of undersea cable damage attributed to maritime traffic.
This worrying event follows reports from earlier this year when EstLink 2 was out of commission from January until September due to internal short circuits, which cost over €30 million to repair. Just this past month, on December 3, additional undersea cables were reported damaged between Sweden and Finland as well. Such repeated incidents have left both the public and officials speculating about the integrity and security of maritime infrastructure.
Estonian Prime Minister Petteri Orpo sought to assuage fears, stating, "Even on Christmas, authorities are vigilant and investigating the situation." He reassured citizens, emphasizing, "This power interruption will not affect the electricity supply to Finns.” Similarly, Fingrid confirmed these sentiments, emphasizing their commitment to guaranteeing the stability of Finland's energy supply.
MarineTraffic data traced Xin Xin Tian 2's location to the vicinity of the EstLink 2 cable at the precise time of the outage. Fingers are pointed at potential culprits behind these cable disruptions, with increasing speculation on whether the cargo ship had any direct connection to the incident. Both companies are currently working tirelessly to investigate and ascertain the actual cause before drawing conclusions. The spotlight is amid heightened security anxiety around undersea cable utility stemming from incidents involving vessels believed to be linked to China.
This unease was echoed by Estonia's Interior Minister Lauri Läänemets, who indicated, "Given the recent complications with underwater cables and pipelines, anything is possible." Such comments have stirred discussions on broader national security concerns and the importance of maintaining secure and functional energy connections across the Baltic Sea.
Historically, the EstLink 2 cable stretches to over 170 kilometers, with 145 of those kilometers submerged beneath the Gulf of Finland. The cable forms a lifeline of energy trade between Estonia and Finland, enabling substantial power transfers, especially during peak demand periods. Consequently, disrupting this source of energy not only impacts financial costs but also raises serious strategic issues for both countries.
The impact of the recent outage, both economically and strategically, remains uncertain at this time. Elering assured the public about the usage of reserve capacities in the region to mitigate the effects of the power loss, indicating potential moves to rely on alternative energy sources should the outage extend beyond initial estimates.
The incident resonates with patterns observed earlier this year when underwater cables experienced unprecedented disruptions owing to supposed vessel interferences. Notably, it draws the attention of analysts concerned with the security of energy infrastructures and the rising frequency of such inadvertent or intentional disruptions.
Keep your eyes peeled for updates on this situation, as authorities from both Estonia and Finland diligently work to resolve the underlying issues surrounding EstLink 2. The stability of energy exchanges remains under tight scrutiny as more details come to light.
