When South Sudan gained independence in 2011, hopes ran high for Africa’s newest nation. Salva Kiir, the country’s first president, even met then-U.S. President Barack Obama at the White House to discuss a vision for the fledgling state. Yet, as the years ticked by, the dream of a unified, peaceful South Sudan has drifted further out of reach. Instead, the country has become a case study in how instability can be wielded as a political weapon—leaving millions of civilians to bear the brunt of unending violence and broken promises.
According to The Conversation, Kiir’s leadership has been marked by a lack of a clear national vision, with power maintained through a tangled web of patronage, ethnic loyalties, and calculated instability. Research by Steven C. Roach, a professor of international relations, underscores how Kiir’s government has systematically delayed elections, repressed civil society, exaggerated threats of rebellion, and exploited regional conflicts to stay in control. The result? Institutions remain weak, political rivals are sidelined, and the justice system is routinely undermined.
The consequences of this approach have been devastating. Barely two years after independence, South Sudan plunged into civil war between 2013 and 2015—a conflict that claimed nearly 400,000 lives and forced 2.3 million people to flee to neighboring countries, as reported by The Conversation. While a peace deal in August 2015 brought a brief respite, violence flared again in July 2016, and a subsequent 2018 peace agreement has yet to be fully honored. The country still awaits its first national elections, a permanent constitution, integration of armed forces, and the establishment of a war crimes court. Corruption, meanwhile, remains rampant; Transparency International has ranked South Sudan as the most corrupt country in the world.
Recent events have only deepened the crisis. In March 2025, President Kiir arrested his main rival and former vice-president, Riek Machar, accusing him of plotting a rebellion. By September, Machar faced charges of treason, and on September 22, court proceedings began in Juba against him and several senior members of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO). According to Devdiscourse, the charges stem from an alleged attack on a South Sudan People’s Defence Force base in Nasir earlier in the year, and include murder, treason, and crimes against humanity.
The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Türk, has voiced grave concern over the deteriorating situation. “Men, women and children have been killed, injured and displaced, and homes, schools, health centres and other infrastructure destroyed, with devastating consequences on civilians. This is unconscionable and must stop,” Türk said, as quoted by Devdiscourse. He stressed the importance of fair judicial proceedings and called on the government to ensure due process and judicial independence for Machar and others facing trial.
The numbers paint a grim picture. From January to September 2025, at least 1,854 civilians were killed, 1,693 injured, 423 abducted, and 169 subjected to sexual violence, according to data from the UN Human Rights Office. This represents a staggering 59% increase in victims compared to the same period in 2024. The first quarter of 2025 saw the highest civilian casualty figures in any three-month period since 2020, with a particularly sharp escalation in the second quarter. Military operations by the South Sudanese army, including indiscriminate airstrikes in populated areas across Upper Nile, Jonglei, Unity, Central Equatoria, and Warrap states, have resulted in deaths, injuries, displacement, and the destruction of vital infrastructure.
Communal violence has also surged, increasing by 33% year-on-year. Clashes among Dinka sub-clans in Warrap State, as well as retaliatory attacks involving Murle, Dinka Bor, and Lou Nuer armed groups from Jonglei State, have added fuel to the fire. The UN documented 45 extrajudicial killings by security forces in 2025 alone, including the deaths of two boys, mostly in Warrap and Lakes States. Authorities reportedly resorted to unlawful killings as part of their response to inter-communal clashes, further eroding public trust in the state.
The political maneuvering at the top has only heightened tensions. In October 2024, Kiir postponed long-awaited elections to 2026, citing instability. Critics, including Roach, argue that such delays serve mainly to shield government elites from accountability. In a controversial move, Kiir appointed Benjamin Bol Mel, his former advisor and financial confidant, as his apparent successor in February 2025. He then sacked two vice-presidents—Kuol Manyang Juuk and Daniel Awet Akot—in May, replacing dissenting voices with loyalists, including his own daughter, Adut Salva Kiir, who was made a senior presidential envoy. These appointments bypassed established party procedures, raising concerns about the concentration of power and the exclusion of broader input in succession planning.
Regional instability has further complicated matters. The ongoing civil war in neighboring Sudan has spilled over into South Sudan, pushing the country to the brink of renewed violence. A recent break in a vital oil pipeline linking the two countries has slashed nearly 40% of South Sudan’s oil revenue, deepening economic woes and threatening already fragile livelihoods. Meanwhile, the dismantling of the United States Agency for International Development—which provided nearly $16 million in aid to civil society programs in 2023—has left local organizations scrambling for resources at a time when their role is more critical than ever.
The humanitarian impact is catastrophic. Millions remain displaced, food insecurity is rampant, and access to aid is severely restricted in conflict zones. The UN has repeatedly urged all armed groups and state forces to protect civilians and respect international humanitarian law. Türk warned that without immediate efforts to uphold the 2018 Revitalized Peace Agreement, curb communal violence, and ensure accountability for atrocities, South Sudan risks sliding deeper into conflict. “With fears of a collapse of the 2018 Revitalized Peace Agreement and a return to widespread violence intensifying, I deeply worry for the plight of civilians in South Sudan,” Türk said, calling on the international community to act urgently to support peace, justice, and human rights.
So, what lies ahead for South Sudan? The path forward, experts say, depends on both internal reforms and external pressure. Empowering civil society, ensuring fair and transparent succession, and holding leaders accountable are essential steps. Yet with regional conflicts raging and international aid dwindling, the country’s prospects remain uncertain. For now, South Sudan stands at a crossroads—its future hanging in the balance as its people endure the heavy cost of instability and unfulfilled promises.