Some of the nation’s elite colleges are grappling with significant changes to their freshman classes as they analyze the impact of the Supreme Court's decision to eliminate affirmative action policies. The ruling, which struck down the consideration of race in college admissions, is beginning to reveal its consequences, particularly for Black and Hispanic students. Recent enrollment data indicates troubling trends at several top institutions, reflecting not only shifts within student demographics but also altering the academic environments at these schools.
Data from universities like Amherst College, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), and Tufts University reveals stark declines. At Amherst, for example, the percentage of Black students has dropped from 11% to just 3% for the incoming class of 2028. MIT reported similar findings, with Black student enrollment plummeting from 15% to just 5%. Likewise, Washington University in St. Louis and the University of Virginia are experiencing declines, raising concerns among educators and experts alike.
Mount Holyoke College President Danielle Holley described the Supreme Court’s ruling as “catastrophic,” emphasizing how it has fundamentally altered the admissions process for institutions striving to maintain diversity without the ability to factor race directly. “The feeling was pretty catastrophic,” Holley said. “That demographic information used to be readily available for a student’s file is now masked.” With the ruling setting new precedents, schools are being forced to pivot their strategies to maintain inclusivity.
The ramifications of this shift are being felt more broadly. Although some schools, like Yale University, have managed to retain steady numbers, the overall trend of declining enrollment for students of color is notable. Freshman Flematu Fofana, currently at Yale, expressed concern over how the ruling has altered her approach. Fofana explained, "Without affirmative action, I felt so uncertain about how my college decision was going to go... I started realizing how much I value diversity." Her experiences highlight the pressure and adjustments prospective students feel when race-conscious practices fall out of favor.
Schools aren’t standing idly by. Many are exploring new avenues to achieve diversity through outreach and alternative admissions criteria. Tufts University plans to work on increasing connections with low-income and underrepresented communities. Dean of Admissions JT Duck commented on the need for continuous efforts to improve access. “The results show we have more work to do to assure talented students from various backgrounds, especially those historically underrepresented, can attend Tufts,” he shared.
At the University of North Carolina, which closely monitored the shifts caused by the Supreme Court ruling, the enrollment of Black students has dropped from 10.4% to 7.8%. Similarly, Asian student enrollment has seen variations, growing by 1 percentage point overall, illustrating how demographic shifts are not easily categorized following the Supreme Court’s decision.
For many institutions, the end of affirmative action raises fundamental challenges about identity and belonging among their students. Experts warn of potential long-term impacts on campus culture when students of color join forces to navigate predominantly white or less diverse environments. Mitchell Chang, a professor at UCLA, cautioned, “If the number of underrepresented students falls below certain thresholds, it could significantly affect how prospective students perceive their ability to find community at these schools.”
Columbia University and the University of California have also reported declines, and some officials are already sounding alarms about how decreased diversity might deter applicants who prioritize social environments reflective of broader society.
Beyond demographic factors, the Supreme Court’s ruling is shifting what qualities schools prioritize during admissions. Many are banking on personal statements, unique background experiences, and holistic reviews to fill the gaps. Institutions like Wellesley College have shared their numbers graphically. For the class of 2028, Black students only make up 5%, marking the lowest percentage since previous years. This contrasts starkly with figures from as recently as 2027.
The demographic changes since the ruling don't just affect future admissions questions; current students and alumni are watching closely. They are concerned about how these shifts will shape the college experience and alter the atmosphere on campus. Alumni from these institutions express fears about the diminishing of diversity on campus leading to diminished perspectives and social networks.
The decline is not universally distributed—some categories have seen increases. For example, Asian students have seen increased representation at certain schools, like MIT, where they now make up 47% of students. This reflects how the elimination of race as a criterion can have complex generational effects. The curious combination of reductions among Black and Latino students alongside possible growth among Asian students presents challenges for institutions on how to balance representation.
While experts indicate it is too early for definitive conclusions on the ruling's long-term effects, admissions officials have cited their commitment to promoting diversity through outreach and partnerships beyond traditional admissions practices. These strategies might eventually help schools rebuild their diversity numbers even within the new constraints.
This transitional period could tell much about the future of higher education. Colleges and universities, traditionally bastions of diversity and opportunity, now face the challenge of maintaining those ideals without the means previously at their disposal. Indeed, as the academic community watches and learns from these upheavals, it becomes evident how policies not only shape enrollment data but resonate through campus life and student experiences.
