New York’s political landscape is bracing for a seismic shift as Rep. Elise Stefanik, a prominent Republican congresswoman from the North Country and a close ally of former President Donald Trump, prepares to launch her bid for governor in 2026. State GOP Chair Ed Cox confirmed on September 17, 2025, that Stefanik will formally announce her candidacy soon after the November local elections, a move that all but clinches her as the Republican nominee to face incumbent Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul.
"She just doesn’t want to, in fact sort of get mixed up in the local elections," Cox explained to reporters, echoing advice Stefanik received from former Governor George Pataki. The strategy is clear: let local candidates have the spotlight, allow the dust to settle from the November races, and then step forward with a campaign launch that’s likely to dominate headlines statewide. As Cox put it, "Let those happen, let the candidates carry that, let them be highlighted, and then after that she will declare."
Stefanik herself confirmed the timing during a Fox News Radio interview, stating, "After the November elections, Brian." She emphasized the importance of Republican performance in all 62 counties, saying, "You have to make sure that Republicans continue to do well. We’ve made those investments in each of the 62 counties. We have key races, and after this November I look forward to making my announcement. And we’re getting an outpouring of support all across the state."
This approach isn’t just about optics—it’s about momentum. By delaying her official entry, Stefanik avoids the pitfalls of a bruising primary fight, an advantage Cox was eager to highlight. Unlike the 2022 race, when Lee Zeldin had to weather a four-way primary before taking on Hochul, Republicans will not hold a gubernatorial primary in June 2026. "You say things in the primary that really don’t work in the general," Cox reflected, referencing the lessons learned from previous cycles.
The path to the nomination cleared further when Hudson Valley Rep. Mike Lawler withdrew from consideration in July 2025. With Lawler out, Stefanik’s route is virtually unopposed—a rare feat in New York’s often fractious GOP. Cox, re-elected for his seventh term as party chair, expressed confidence in the party’s prospects, and in Stefanik’s fundraising prowess, noting she doesn’t need to declare early to build a formidable war chest.
Stefanik’s campaign is expected to focus on a sharp critique of Hochul’s record, particularly targeting the state’s sanctuary city policies and controversial bail reform laws. According to the Daily Caller News Foundation, Stefanik has been signaling her intent for months, intent on "torpedo[ing] New York Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul’s reelection bid." In a Fox News appearance on September 15, 2025, Stefanik stated, "We are building the groundwork today to support local candidates this year and we need to save New York and we’re working to do that every single day."
The campaign rhetoric has already heated up, especially after Hochul endorsed Democratic mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani, an avowed democratic socialist, in a New York Times op-ed published September 14. Hochul praised Mamdani’s focus on affordability, writing, "Affordability has long been my top priority as governor, and it is the No. 1 concern I share with Mr. Mamdani." Stefanik, in turn, lambasted the endorsement, calling Hochul "an absolute disgrace" and arguing, "It was only a matter of time before the worst governor in America bent the knee to this raging antisemite communist Zohran Mamdani." She claimed, "My phone has been ringing off the hook with people who are appalled that she has made this decision to embrace every radical position he stands for. It’s bad for New York City. It’s bad for New York State. And people are going to hold her accountable next November."
Meanwhile, the Democratic side is not without its own drama. Hochul is facing a primary challenge from her own lieutenant governor, Antonio Delgado, who endorsed Mamdani after his upset win over former Governor Andrew Cuomo in the Democratic primary. Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie, another influential Democrat, formally endorsed Mamdani on September 17 and expressed support for parts of his progressive agenda, such as raising taxes on the wealthy and expanding child care subsidies. Heastie acknowledged, "A lot of the things that Zohran campaigned on is things that the Assembly Democrats have supported." Still, he predicted "a robust discussion on revenue raisers next year," especially as Hochul has publicly stated her opposition to tax increases.
Back on the Republican front, the party is not entirely without internal friction. In August, Stefanik called for the resignation of Clinton County GOP Chair Jerika Manning after Manning declined to endorse Stefanik’s preferred candidate for a special North Country Assembly election. Stefanik wrote on X, "It is clear she has lost the confidence of elected Republican officials, committee members, and most importantly voters." But Manning survived a confidence vote and helped select Brent Davison, a recently retired state trooper, as the GOP nominee. Cox downplayed the division, saying, "It’s the job of the local county to … make that decision. That’s the way special elections work." Davison’s background in law enforcement is seen as an asset in a district with an almost even partisan split, and Republicans hope his candidacy will be a bellwether for the party’s fortunes statewide.
Stefanik is widely expected to secure Donald Trump’s endorsement once she officially enters the race, a boost in a state where Trump’s influence remains potent among Republicans. However, the road ahead is steep: an August 2025 Siena poll showed Hochul leading Stefanik by 14 points in a hypothetical general election matchup. And history is not on the GOP’s side—no Republican has won the governor’s mansion since George Pataki’s third-term victory in 2002.
As the 2025 local elections approach, both parties are testing their messages and mobilizing supporters. For Republicans, success in November could set the tone for a Stefanik-led challenge in 2026. For Democrats, unity behind Hochul or a viable alternative will be crucial as progressive voices like Mamdani’s gain prominence. With crime rates, affordability, and ideological divides dominating the conversation, New Yorkers are in for a spirited and consequential campaign season.
With the political stage set and the stakes higher than ever, Stefanik’s impending announcement promises to ignite a battle for New York’s future that will reverberate far beyond the state’s borders.
