Eli Lilly & Co. stock surged 12% on Thursday, April 17, 2025, reaching $823.80 after the company announced positive results from its Phase 3 trial of Orforglipron, an oral GLP-1 medication aimed at treating obesity and type 2 diabetes. The trial results revealed that patients using the once-daily pill achieved an average weight loss of 16 pounds, or about 8% of their body weight, alongside an A1C reduction of between 1.3% and 1.6%. These findings position Orforglipron as a compelling alternative to existing injectable GLP-1 drugs, such as Novo Nordisk's Ozempic and Wegovy.
The announcement marks a significant milestone for Eli Lilly, as the company prepares to submit Orforglipron for FDA approval for obesity by the end of 2025, with a subsequent filing for diabetes treatment expected in 2026. The promising Phase 3 trial data not only highlights the drug's efficacy but also its potential to broaden access to patients who are hesitant about injections. Analysts from JPMorgan noted, "We continue to see oral GLP-1s as the biggest factor in alleviating global capacity constraints & increasing accessibility of GLP-1's, particularly in international markets." This sentiment reflects a growing optimism around the oral form of GLP-1 treatments.
In contrast, shares of Novo Nordisk fell by as much as 8% on the same day, a reaction to Eli Lilly's competitive trial results. The ACHIEVE-1 trial for Orforglipron demonstrated significant A1C reduction and weight loss, with the highest dose resulting in a 7.9% weight loss over 40 weeks. Despite some gastrointestinal side effects reported, the discontinuation rates remained below the clinical threshold of 10%, indicating a favorable safety profile compared to injectable alternatives.
"These Orforglipron T2D Phase 3 efficacy results compare favorably cross-trial to NVO’s injectable semaglutide; the caveat is that neither semaglutide trial is a perfect comp," stated analysts from Leerink Partners. This competitive landscape has prompted some analysts to suggest that Novo Nordisk may need to expedite the introduction of a small molecule GLP-1 into its portfolio.
Furthermore, Evercore ISI analyst Umer Raffat emphasized the importance of safety in the trial results, noting that there were no liver safety signals, which contrasts with Pfizer's recent challenges in developing an oral obesity treatment after a patient experienced a potential drug-induced liver injury. Raffat remarked, "Look at how LLY CEO spoke about the data — and mentions safety first: 'meets our expectations for safety and tolerability, glucose control and weight loss, and we look forward to additional data readouts later this year.'" This focus on safety could play a crucial role in Eli Lilly's marketing strategy for Orforglipron.
As the weight-loss drug market heats up, the implications of Eli Lilly's successful trial extend beyond just its stock performance. The company has made significant strides in developing an oral treatment that could be easier to administer and manufacture compared to current injectable options. Analysts predict that a successful launch could lead to a steep ramp in sales for Orforglipron, enhancing Eli Lilly's competitive edge in the diabetes and obesity treatment sectors.
The full trial data for Orforglipron is set to be presented at the American Diabetes Association (ADA) meeting on June 21, 2025, which may provide further insights into its efficacy and safety profile. As Eli Lilly moves forward with its plans, the pharmaceutical giant's stock performance reflects investor confidence in its innovative approach to tackling obesity and type 2 diabetes.
In summary, Eli Lilly's recent trial results for Orforglipron not only highlight the drug's potential effectiveness but also underscore a significant shift in the treatment landscape for diabetes and obesity. With the possibility of a more accessible and cost-effective oral treatment on the horizon, the pharmaceutical industry is poised for a competitive evolution, particularly as companies like Novo Nordisk respond to the challenge posed by Eli Lilly's advancements.
