The long-awaited revival of the Elfstedentocht, the iconic Dutch ice skating race, faces yet another setback as unfavorable weather conditions threaten its future. The race, which covers 200 kilometers through Friesland, last took place back in 1997, and with each passing year, the hope for its return seems to dwindle due to increasingly mild winters.
According to Weeronline, the conditions required to safely conduct the Elfstedentocht—a prolonged cold spell with daytime temperatures remaining below freezing and nighttime lows hitting at least -10 degrees Celsius—remain elusive. The last time the race was held was during the infamous winter of '63, which is still remembered as one of the coldest periods in Dutch history. During this brutal winter, the icy streets were solid enough to support cars driving across the frozen IJsselmeer.
Currently, the weather across the Netherlands exhibits only light frost and sporadic snowfall. Meteorologists predict a brief period of snow this coming Sunday, but temperatures are forecasted to rise quickly, turning any snow accumulation to rain—a likely death knell for any hopes of developing the necessary ice.
Next week doesn’t hold much promise either, with highs expected to hover between 2 to 6 degrees Celsius and only the faint possibility of overnight frost. While these temperatures may seem cold, they are far from what is needed to develop the 15 centimeters of ice thickness required for the race to be deemed stable and safe.
Looking at the rest of January, predictions remain uncertain. Milder air from the ocean is anticipated, and even though winds from the east or northeast could maintain some cooler temperatures, the overall prognosis for the prolonged freeze required for the Elfstedentocht isn't optimistic. The last significant chance for the race came back in February 2012, when cold wave conditions led to daytime temperatures well below freezing for several days.
Despite ideal weather stacked up just right, officials had to cancel the race due to insufficient ice thickness worsened by unexpected snowfall. Truly, the quote from officials during the disappointment sums up the past challenges: "Everything seemed to align, but the thaw came just a bit too early."
Since then, sporadic cold spells have occurred, such as those noted in January 2013 and February 2021, which allowed for some local skating on canals and lakes. Still, none have come close to creating the sustained conditions needed for the Elfstedentocht.
The increasing rarity of the Elfstedentocht correlates strongly with climate change, which has brought milder winters to the Netherlands. The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) suggests the probability of the continuous freezing required for the race has plummeted to just 8 percent. These figures paint a grim picture: by 2050, there's concern this likelihood may decrease to only 1 percent, with nearly negligible chances by the end of the century.
Yet, experts cautiously add there is still potential for brief cold snaps to allow for some skating. The 2021 cold spell delivered moments of skating across various lakes, generating excitement for many towns along the Elfstedentocht route including Sneek, yet the race itself remains absent.
Despite the doubts cast by shifting weather patterns, the Dutch public’s fascination with the Elfstedentocht has endured, with many people still reminiscing about past events and discussing what might be necessary to revive the legendary race. Enthusiasts continue to hope for colder winters to enable the race to grace the ice once again, keeping the spirit of the Elfstedentocht alive even when the weather doesn't cooperate.
It's becoming increasingly clear, though, as these temperatures rise, the chances of skating through Friesland's iconic 15-skaters route are dwindling. The Elfstedentocht, once revered as a staple of Dutch winter culture, now stands as a poignant reminder of how climate change is reshaping traditions even as hopes endure.