The automotive industry in the United Kingdom is undergoing what some are calling a seismic shift, as the number of petrol cars on the road hits its peak this year. Experts predict significant changes as the country moves toward greater adoption of electric vehicles (EVs). According to recent findings from Auto Trader, the online vehicle marketplace, this year marks the apex for petrol-powered cars, with numbers expected to tumble over the next decade.
Currently, it's estimated there are about 18.7 million gasoline vehicles on British roads, but this figure is projected to drop to approximately 11.1 million by 2034. This decline reflects the shifting habits of drivers who are increasingly making the switch to electric vehicles, which are expected to see their numbers skyrocket from just 1.25 million today to around 13.7 million by 2034. Ian Plummer, the commercial director at Auto Trader, emphasizes the importance of this transition by stating, "Peak petrol is a genuine landmark for the UK."
What’s driving this transformation? For one, affordability is becoming less of an obstacle for potential EV buyers. The market share of electric vehicles is forecasted to rise from roughly 18% this year to 23% by 2025, still falling short of the UK government's ambitious target of 28% under its Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) mandate. This increasing share of EVs is particularly significant as it signifies not only consumer interest but also highlights the automotive industry’s challenge to meet government regulations.
Under the ZEV mandate, current guidelines require manufacturers to guarantee at least 22% of all new car sales to be battery-electric vehicles, with expectations for this percentage to rise to 28% next year, and eventually reach 80% by 2030, culminating at 100% by 2035. While this reinforces the government’s goal of reducing carbon emissions, car manufacturers have voiced concerns about the feasibility of meeting these targets amid rising costs associated with EV production, as well as the slow adoption rate due to higher prices compared to traditional petrol cars.
An unfortunate consequence of the stringent regulations has been job losses, with companies like Stellantis, owner of Vauxhall, recently announcing the closure of their van-producing factory in Luton, which risks over 1,000 jobs. The company cited the pressures from the ZEV mandate as part of its rationale for this decision.
Despite challenges, there’s still tangible interest and demand for used cars, which has remained strong. Auto Trader forecasts sales of second-hand vehicles will increase from 7.61 million this year to 7.7 million by 2025. This trend shows promise for used EVs as well, with many sellers pricing them competitively against petrol and diesel models. Currently, about one-third of used EVs are listed for under £20,000, narrowing the gap between new and used prices.
The challenges facing the automotive industry don’t just stop with pricing. There’s also the pressing concern over charging infrastructure. Many potential EV owners remain hesitant, not just due to the cost of the vehicles themselves, but also because they are worried about the lack of charging points available across the UK. Without sufficient charging options, transitioning from petrol cars to electric cars could be significantly hindered.
While UK consumers reconsider their vehicle options, the automotive industry must grapple with multiple factors impacting EV sales, from government regulations to manufacturing costs and infrastructure development. Amid these changes, one thing is clear: the shift from petrol to electric cars is not only expected, but appears inevitable. Ian Plummer encapsulates this sentiment by stating, "All this is happening against the backdrop of exceptionally strong used car demand, reflecting the urgency and necessity for change across the industry." This transition may be complex, but it marks the dawn of new possibilities as Britain gears up for its future on the roads.