Germany held its long-awaited federal election on February 23, 2025, which saw a significant shift in the political arena. With polling stations open from 8 AM to 6 PM, voters across the country took part, casting their ballots for the next members of the Bundestag as well as the potential new Chancellor.
Leading up to the election, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by Friedrich Merz, was anticipated to be the strongest party, polling around 30%. They were closely followed by the right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD), which secured nearly 20%, and incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democratic Party (SPD) lagging behind at approximately 15%. The Greens were predicted to receive around 13%, and the Left party showed signs of recovering with 7%. These dynamics were indicative of the growing fragmentation within German politics.
The election resulted from the collapse of the previous coalition government, known as the Ampelkoalition, comprised of the SPD, Greens, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP). This coalition disintegrated over budgetary disagreements, particularly concerning the demands for fiscal restraint and social policies. Lars Klingbeil, the SPD leader, criticized Merz’s campaign strategies, claiming, “Friedrich Merz makes the trenches of our democratic middle even more pronounced,” reflecting the heightened tensions within the political discourse.
After the polls closed, initial projections were shared based on exit polls, with exit polling indicating the CDU might take the largest share of votes once again. Within this framework, the formation of the new government could lead to several potential coalition arrangements, depending on how the smaller parties performed.
One of the significant changes this election brought is related to the new voting regulations introduced by the Ampelkoalition. The German electoral system traditionally allowed voters to cast two votes—one for individual candidates (first vote) and another for party lists (second vote). The latter plays a pivotal role, as only parties achieving at least 5% of the vote or winning three direct mandates can enter the Bundestag. This reform aimed to streamline the parliamentary representation and discourage the political fragmentation seen previously.
Following the election, political analysts speculated on Merz’s options for coalition partners. Merz explicitly ruled out any form of coalition with the AfD, emphasizing the party’s controversial stance on several issues. Instead, he eyed the FDP as his likely coalition partner, provided they could surpass the 5% threshold necessary to regain parliamentary representation. The past difficulties faced by the FDP, where they found themselves on the brink of exclusion, added to the uncertainty of potential alliances.
Political analysts noted the inevitability of negotiations as the Bundestag consists of varying opinions and demands, with four to seven parties expected to enter parliament based on election results. The discussions for coalition formation can be prolonged, with previous instances taking several months. The situation could considerably complicate governance, especially if parties find it challenging to bridge their ideological divides.
Experts pointed out the potential impacts of this election on Germany’s future role within Europe. The leader of the CDU would need to adopt strong positions within the European framework, providing consistency and reliability. Merz, should he become Chancellor, faces the monumental task of uniting disparate voices amid widespread public demand for stability, order, and strong governance.
Reflecting on the various political outcomes and sentiments among the populace, it became clear from discussions among voters and campaigners alike, the populace’s yearning for coherence might reign over political partisanship. Many citizens expressed concern over the divisiveness seen during the campaign, illustrating the necessity for leaders to unify, rather than deepen divisions. "A stable government is needed now more than ever," voices echoed throughout campaign rallies.
Looking forward, one major question remains—how will Merz configure his coalition and govern effectively when the parliamentary dynamics may not favor any singular party? Political maneuvers post-election will be closely observed not just within Germany but throughout Europe, as many watch to see how Germany adjusts its approach both domestically and internationally.
The outcome of the 2025 federal election marks another pivotal moment for Germany, with voters expressing their will for change and stability amid turbulent times. This election not only reshapes the Bundestag but sets the stage for Germany's governance and positioning on the European stage for years to come.