On January 31, 2025, Ahmed al-Sharaa was appointed as Syria's new President by armed factions, marking a pivotal moment for the war-torn nation following the ousting of the long-time authoritarian leader Bashar al-Assad. The reaction from neighboring Egypt, particularly its President Abdullah el-Sisi, was swift and cautious, reflecting the delicate dynamics at play within the region.
President el-Sisi offered his congratulations to al-Sharaa, wishing him success as he seeks to fulfill the aspirations of the Syrian people. This gesture is important, as it signifies Egypt's recognition of al-Sharaa’s new government at a time when the political atmosphere across the Middle East continues to shift dramatically.
"Sisi congratulated Syria's new President Ahmed al-Sharaa, who was appointed on Wednesday by armed factions, and wished him success in achieving the Syrian people's aspirations," reported by Reuters.
Al-Sharaa, who has past affiliations with Islamist groups, including al Qaeda, has been working to garner support from both Arab and Western leaders since leading the offensive against Assad. This connection raises eyebrows for many, especially el-Sisi, whose administration has made it clear they oppose Islamist movements gaining ground.
Reflecting on the turbulent history between the two nations, during the Arab Spring, Syria and Egypt both saw significant unrest but took vastly different paths. Egypt's own revolution led to the fall of Hosni Mubarak, and the rise of Islamist political factions, before el-Sisi seized power through military means. The approach to al-Sharaa's presidency must navigate this backdrop carefully.
While el-Sisi did congratulate al-Sharaa, the Egyptian regime has been on high alert concerning the rise of Islamist groups. The concern stems from the domino effect revolutions can have within the region. There is fear among Egyptian leaders of revolutionary sentiment seeping across borders. An Egyptian expert remarked, "Two thousand and eleven is only 14 years away," referencing the year 2011 when Egypt's revolution ignited significant changes.
The fall of Assad has already elicited reactions from Egyptian authorities, which have tightened controls on the Syrian refugee population within its borders and cracked down on political dissidents. These concerns have led to heightened tensions within Egypt, as economic hardships continue to plague the nation, exacerbated by global challenges such as the wars in Ukraine and Gaza.
Egypt's precarious economic situation—marked by deep debt, soaring inflation, and high poverty levels per official figures—means el-Sisi must tread carefully. His government is facing mounting dissent from citizens struggling under economic despair. Despite this dire economic climate, el-Sisi's government remains focused on suppressing any potential uprisings similar to those witnessed previously.
Ahmed al-Mansour, who left Egypt to join the Syrian rebels, has voiced criticisms against el-Sisi, which only adds pressure to the president's administration. The Egyptian regime's focus on stability has made it less inclined to welcome rapid changes happening next door. Yet, as more Egyptians express their dissatisfaction with economic conditions and governance, the ruling party is left wary of any possible uprising inspired by Syrian events.
"Sharaa, an Islamist who was once an affiliate of al Qaeda, has been trying to gain support from Arab and Western leaders since he led a rebel offensive..." reported by Reuters.
El-Sisi's cautious congratulatory tone reflects both the immediate political environment and the broader historical backdrop of interaction between the two countries. Egypt has refrained from engaging too deeply with the new Syrian regime, taking a wait-and-see approach as it observes how al-Sharaa's leadership may manifest. Many wonder if the new regime will prioritize stability or lean more toward the Islamist factions prevalent during the revolution.
Egypt, having preferred the stability of Assad's regime, will likely continue to be reluctant to embrace the new Syrian leadership immediately, fearing the potential security threats posed by the rise of Islamists. The tension flares not just from political ideologies, but also from economics and the potential for renewed regional conflicts.
A recent statement from Egypt’s foreign minister urging international partners to prevent Syria from becoming a breeding ground for extremism reinforces the sensitivity ingrained within Egyptian views of their northern neighbor. This reflects the apprehension among Egyptian leaders who have invested heavily in quelling Islamist movements domestically.
While Egypt's el-Sisi stands firm on his principles, the continuous wave of unrest and reactions from Syrian political factions will be monitored closely. The future relationship between Egypt and Syria will be predicated on how effectively al-Sharaa can establish his new government, manage the significant humanitarian crises resulting from years of civil conflict, and steer clear of extremist affiliations.
Egypt's geopolitical strategy hinges on ensuring stability and preventing radical elements from gaining traction, particularly as they now share borders with regions ripe for conflict. The developments coming out of Syria could echo for many years to come, as regional leaders balance their responses amid shifting allegiances and the looming threat of instability.