Grocery shoppers across the United States are experiencing another surge in egg prices, reminiscent of the record highs witnessed just two years ago. The average retail price of Grade A eggs has jumped 38% since November 2024, with prices rising 8% just last month, as per data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. A dozen large Grade A eggs cost $4.15 as of December, up from $2.52 just one year prior.
Two main factors driving this spike are avian flu, which has decimated egg supply, and the strong consumer demand typical during the winter holiday season, according to several economists and market analysts. "There’s a very real chance we could flirt with record highs for prices," stated Brian Moscogiuri, vice president of Eggs Unlimited, warning of the seriousness of the supply crunch.
Egg prices peaked at $4.82 per dozen back in January 2023, having dramatically increased from $1.93 just one year earlier. This troubling pattern of inflation for eggs has been part of the larger narrative of food pricing during the pandemic, where eggs stood out with an annual inflation rate reaching 60% during 2022, which was echoed by prices climbing again.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported around 33 million egg-laying chickens impacted by avian flu have been culled this year alone. This is only compounded by the fact the highly pathogenic avian influenza has been circulating the U.S. since late 2021. “If you have one infection, chances are nearly all the birds are infected, or will be infected in very short time,” noted Andrew Novakovic, professor of agricultural economics at Cornell University, highlighting the severity of the outbreak.
Further complicate the situation is the timing. The holiday effect means consumer demand is surging for eggs, as families turn to baking during Thanksgiving and Christmas. Ryan Hojnowski, egg analyst at Expana, emphasized, “Q4 is when we typically see the strongest demand for eggs.” With this holiday spike and simultaneously dwindling supplies, market prices are expected to rise. Some experts predict softening of prices post-holidays, yet uncertainty looms over the future, hinging on the avian flu’s progression.
The bird flu not only poses threats to egg supply but has also disrupted broader food systems. For food banks like the Mid-Ohio Food Collective, egg prices have tripled over the last 16 months, as per Brad Draper, senior vice president of operations. The collective has cut back on egg purchases to allocate funds to lower-priced but equally nutritious foods. “We want to make the best decision we can with those dollars to get the most nutrition for families we serve,” Draper said.
Currently, the nation is seeing egg prices roughly 60% higher than last December, with projections for another 20% increase this year alone. These price increases are attributed not only to the avian flu but also surging chicken feed costs and global conflicts impacting supply chains.
Despite this, the crisis is bringing heightened awareness to options within local food systems. Many consumers are prompted to explore raising their own chickens as interim solutions to maintain supply at home. This interest appears to rapidly grow as the prices remain high and uncertainty surrounds mass-produced egg availability.
To comprehend the lively dynamics of egg production, one must also understand the cyclical nature of chicken production, as it typically takes four and half months for new hens to start laying eggs. Hence, timing disruptions between the supply and demand can accelerate price fluctuations dramatically, leaving consumers stunned at register prices.
The repercussions of bird flu extend beyond retail prices, affecting how social service sectors manage food assistance programs. Consumers who rely heavily on food pantries are beginning to experience inconsistent egg availability due to these market pressures. Draper reiterated the struggles of food banks, saying, “It’s important for people to know those of us trying to meet the needs of the needy are also subject to the same market forces we all see at work when doing our grocery shopping.”
The swift fluctuations reinforce the precarious nature of supply chains within agriculture, raising questions about forecasting and resilience for the future. Grocery stores are already seeing shifts, with Mike Vickers, manager of Sentyrz Liquor & Supermarket, lamenting the embarrassment of high egg prices, commenting, “Right now we can’t get any organic. We can’t get any cage-free... and they just went up again.”
Experts anticipate these supply and demand dynamics will keep egg prices elevated for the foreseeable future, particularly as we approach higher consumer demand periods like Easter. The USDA forecasts egg prices will likely hit $5.00 to $6.00 per dozen, signaling continued distress for consumers.
The agricultural community is wrestling with rising costs and significant impacts from the avian flu outbreaks, and as they navigate these challenges, one thing is clear: consumers and food banks alike will need to prepare for fluctuated prices and limited availability well beyond this year.