The Ecuadorian presidential election has heated up, leading to a second round expected to take place on April 13, 2025, as current president Daniel Noboa faces off against left-wing candidate Luisa Gonzalez. With 92% of votes counted from the elections held on February 9, 2025, Noboa, representing the right, led with 44.3% of the votes, just edging out Gonzalez, who garnered 43.8%. This narrow margin, of less than 50,000 votes, signals fierce competition.
Noboa, who assumed the presidency less than two years ago after winning elections amid violent political strife, had initially been the favorite to win outright. But as the counting proceeded, Gonzalez closed the gap significantly, pushing the race to another tumultuous round. This election marks the second encounter between the two candidates; Noboa triumphed over Gonzalez with 52% of the votes during the previous election held under volatile conditions.
Participation for this election was noteworthy, with the National Electoral Council of Ecuador reporting turnout at around 83.3%, adhering to compulsory voting laws. Notably, this election proceeded without major incidents of violence, contrasting with the horrific events of 2023 when candidates campaigned under life-threatening conditions.
Gonzalez’s campaign is closely associated with the legacy of former president Rafael Correa, who served from 2007 to 2017 and initiated socialist policies. Yet, Gonzalez differentiates her campaign by asserting she will not merely be under his influence. During her address following the first round's results, she emphasized her vision of peace contrasted with Noboa’s security-focused approach, stating, “We don’t want a state of war; we want to build peace.”
While Noboa promotes his tough-on-crime policies, boasting of military mobilization aimed at reducing violence linked to drug trafficking, critics point to the alarming rise of crime rates during his short tenure. Under Noboa's leadership, the murder rate skyrocketed to 38 per 100,000 inhabitants, shattering Ecuador's previous reputation as one of Latin America’s safer countries. The drug-related violence has posed significant questions surrounding governance and public safety approach.
On the issue of alleged electoral irregularities, Gonzalez charged Noboa with violating electoral laws by not resigning from his presidency during the campaign. According to Ecuadorian law, officials running for re-election must step down, yet Noboa retained his position, delegitimately operating as both president and candidate. Gonzalez highlighted this unfairness, stating, “Daniel Noboa has used state resources to campaign.” This matter adds layers of contention as both candidates prepare for the upcoming round.
The political stakes couldn't be higher for this election. Many Ecuadorians are feeling the effects of economic distress, with rising poverty levels reported at 28%, and public debt nearing 57% of GDP. The electorate is hoping for transformative change, moving away from violence and instability and addressing the deep-seated issues facing Ecuador.
Noboa's administration was projected as one promising stability and safety amid chaos. He inherited significant challenges from his predecessor Guillermo Lasso, who faced impeachment troubles. Although he gained popularity by capitalizing on social media and the public's yearning for resolution against crime, many see his methods as draconian and undemocratic.
The two candidates' contrasting styles and ideologies reflect broader societal divisions. Gonzalez's connection with the leftist movement nurtures nostalgia for past economic stability, yet many fear the return to socialism, remembering controversies from Correa's presidency. Meanwhile, Noboa's affluent background, stemming from his family’s export business, portrays him as nuanced, leveraging economic capital for electoral advantage.
The upcoming campaign season should provide decisive moments as both candidates work to solidify their bases, each presenting visions defined by their respective approaches to governance, economy, and public safety. Gonzalez aims to replace Noboa's hardline strategies with social programs aimed at alleviating crime through investment rather than militarization.
Political analysts suggest the tight race indicates broader national frustrations with governance and public safety. Gonzalez claimed victory during her speech as she faced supporters, hinting at optimistic signals of backing from previously indifferent voters, spurred by rising inequity and insecurity. “This triumph is for you,” she passionately declared, asserting her commitment to being the voice of the overlooked populace.
With economic recovery and public safety at the forefront of voter concerns, both candidates are under pressure to address the rising tide of discontent. Each has distinct opportunities to outline concrete plans aimed at restoring national stability before returning to the polls this April. The outcome of this upcoming runoff may not only dictate governance for the next four years but also set the tone for future political directions within Ecuador.