The economic agenda for the week starting April 28, 2025, is notably shorter due to the Labor Day holiday on Thursday, May 1. This holiday will see the stock market close, prompting a pause in trading activities. However, important economic indicators are set to be released earlier in the week, providing valuable insights into both the Brazilian and U.S. economies.
On Monday, April 28, the Banco Central will kick off the week with the release of the Relatório Focus, a key report that outlines economists' projections for Brazil's main economic indices. This will be accompanied by the Estatísticas do Setor Externo and Estatísticas do Mercado Aberto, which provide crucial data on external trade and market operations.
The following day, Tuesday, April 29, will see the release of the Índice Geral de Preços – Mercado (IGP-M) alongside the Sondagens de Serviços e Comércio. These reports are essential for gauging inflation and consumer sentiment in Brazil. Then, on Wednesday, April 30, attention will shift to the Taxa de Desemprego and the Indicador de Incerteza da Economia Brasil, both of which will shed light on employment trends and economic confidence in the country.
As the week progresses, the market will pause for the Labor Day holiday on Thursday, May 1, before resuming normal operations on Friday, May 2. Nonetheless, no indicators are scheduled for release on that day.
Meanwhile, investors are gearing up for significant economic data from the United States. The week will culminate with the release of labor market statistics, including the Jolts report, the ADP employment report, and the highly anticipated payroll figures set to be announced on Friday. Additionally, the U.S. will release the Índice de Preços PCE, GDP figures, and reports on Consumer Spending and Pending Home Sales. These indicators are critical for understanding the health of the U.S. economy and the potential implications for monetary policy.
In the previous week, Brazil's inflation data was also a focal point. The Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo 15 (IPCA-15) rose by 0.43% in April, indicating a slowdown from March's 0.64% increase. According to the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE), inflation has accumulated a 2.43% increase year-to-date and a 5.49% increase over the past twelve months. This figure remains above the Banco Central's inflation target of 3%, which allows for a tolerance of 1.5 percentage points, either up or down, for 2025.
Internationally, the ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China are also under scrutiny. On April 24, representatives from both nations met in an attempt to resolve the ongoing trade war. President Donald Trump commented on the situation, stating, "We will collect a fortune from tariffs," and noted that China imposes tariffs of 100% on U.S. goods. He further claimed that India and Brazil also have high tariffs, saying, "That’s how they survive. That’s how they got rich." Despite these claims, China has denied any wrongdoing in the trade negotiations.
As the week unfolds, the Brazilian stock market, known as the Ibovespa, is expected to react to these economic indicators and international developments. On the last trading day, the Ibovespa closed up 0.12%, reaching 134,739.62 points, and has accumulated a 3.92% gain over the week, marking new highs for the year. The dollar also experienced slight fluctuations, closing down 0.05% at R$ 5.69, with an overall decrease of 2.01% during the week and a 0.29% drop in April.
For Monday, April 28, the economic indicators to watch include the following: at 08h25, the Boletim Focus will be released, followed by the external sector data at 08h30, and at 15h00, the weekly balance of trade data will be made available. Investors are keenly awaiting these reports as they prepare for the upcoming holiday and the subsequent market activities.
In the corporate sector, the results for Gerdau (GGBR4) and Metalúrgica Gerdau (GOAU4) for the first quarter of 2025 will be announced after the trading session, adding another layer of interest for investors.
Overall, as the week begins, economic analysts and investors alike are keeping a close eye on both domestic and international indicators that will shape market sentiments and policy decisions in the weeks to come.
