People in the Netherlands have made fewer purchases from online stores in the past year, according to a recent report by Thuiswinkel.org, which was based on a study commissioned by NielsenIQ GfK. However, this decline in purchases has been offset by an increase in orders from foreign webshops, particularly from China, which has emerged as the most popular supplier of online orders for the first time, surpassing Germany.
In 2023, there was a one percent decrease in online orders, totaling 345 million, compared to the previous year. Despite this decline in volume, the money spent online increased by five percent, amounting to 36 billion euros. Interestingly, while the number of orders from webshops grew by one percent, the overall trend reflects a shift in consumer behavior.
Marlene ten Ham, the director of Thuiswinkel, noted in a press release that there has been a growth in non-life insurance policies, such as bicycle insurance, which many consumers are arranging directly in bicycle shops. This shift, along with a switch to different health insurance policies, has contributed to the boost in online spending in those categories.
While the total number of online orders dropped by about seven million products, equivalent to a three percent decrease, some categories saw notable reductions. Food purchases fell by six percent, and DIY and garden products experienced an eleven percent decrease. However, the purchases that were made often came at higher costs, suggesting that consumers might be buying more products per order or opting for higher-priced items, possibly due to inflation.
Purchases from foreign webshops, on the other hand, grew by four percent, reaching a total of 41 million orders. This figure represents twelve percent of all online orders in the Netherlands. Ten Ham predicts that the Dutch retail market is poised for a dynamic year, with expectations of increased online orders compared to physical store purchases. She pointed out a significant shift in spending, noting that in 2020, 75 percent of online spending was on products, while now it has dropped to 60 percent, indicating a growing trend towards services.
In a separate but equally important development, Dutch pension funds are taking proactive measures to safeguard their equity portfolios against potential downside risks as they prepare to convert their defined benefit (DB) accruals to defined contribution (DC) capital. As of March 28, 2025, several pension funds have started to reduce their equity holdings by either selling stocks or purchasing put options to mitigate risks. This is particularly pertinent for funds scheduled to transition to DC by January 1, 2026.
According to an analysis by asset manager Cardano, the average funding levels of Dutch pension funds could fall below 100% if no measures are implemented. This scenario is exacerbated by increasing geopolitical tensions between China and the United States, which could lead to an accumulation of protectionist measures, including export restrictions and import duties. Such measures could drive inflation in Europe to five percent, reduce global economic growth to just two percent annually, and result in a 30% decline in stock markets.
In light of these challenges, the Council of State, the highest advisory body to the Dutch government, has criticized a proposal for mandatory ballots at the pension fund level regarding the conversion to DC pensions. The council described the proposal as “insufficiently thought-out,” arguing that it undermines the fundamental principle of the pension transition. They raised concerns about whether complex issues like pension changes are best addressed through a binary vote, questioning the rationale behind allowing individual members to weigh collective interests over those of social partners.
Pension administrators have expressed skepticism about meeting the January 1, 2028 deadline for the pension transition. A poll conducted by consultancy Eraneos revealed that two-thirds of respondents believe there is a ‘high’ or ‘very high’ chance that this deadline will not be met. The primary concern cited by respondents is the readiness of IT systems, with only six percent anticipating delays due to legislative changes.
As the Dutch retail landscape evolves with online shopping trends and pension funds navigate a complex transition, the interplay between consumer behavior and financial security remains critical. With rising inflation and geopolitical uncertainties, both sectors face challenges that will shape the economic landscape in the coming years.
Meanwhile, the IPE Real Assets Infrastructure & Natural Capital Global Conference & Awards 2025 is set to take place on September 16-17, 2025, at the Mainport Hotel in Rotterdam, providing a platform for discussions on these pressing issues.
