Ontario's political scene has been reshuffled with the conclusion of the 2025 Provincial Election, which saw Premier Doug Ford's Progressive Conservative (PC) Party secure their third consecutive majority government. This election, marked by significant trade tensions stemming from U.S. President Donald Trump's looming tariffs, unfolded over the winter and ended with the Progressive Conservatives winning at least 74 of the 124 legislative seats with leading positions still being counted.
Ford, who called for this early election, argued it was necessary to seek the largest mandate for his government to navigate the economic uncertainties posed by Trump's administration. He emphasized the need for political stability at such tumultuous times, sporting the slogan "Canada is not for sale" throughout his campaign. This was underscored by his two trips to Washington, D.C., where he campaigned against the tariffs directly affecting Canadian industry.
Even amid criticism from his opponents and the backdrop of recent snowstorms impacting voter turnout, which was recorded at about 42.62%, Ford retained substantial public support. Many Ontarians appeared to back his economic narrative, particularly as the campaign highlighted healthcare challenges, with approximately 2.5 million residents reportedly lacking adequate access to primary care.
Bonnie Crombie, the Liberal leader and former mayor of Mississauga, aimed to mount considerable opposition against Ford. Despite her efforts, which included attempts to appeal to NDP voters, Crombie lost in her riding to PC candidate Silvia Gualtieri by just under 1,300 votes. Gualtieri, who has been embedded within the Conservative party dynamic for years, is noted as the mother-in-law of Brampton mayor Patrick Brown.
Despite falling short of becoming the Official Opposition—it was projected they would take 13 seats, only one above the threshold for official status—Crombie regarded the outcome as indicative of the Liberal Party’s resilience. Addressing her supporters, she expressed pride in the party’s achievements, proclaiming, "I know tonight isn’t exactly the result we were looking for, but you should be very, very proud of what we did tonight. People counted us out. They said the Ontario Liberal Party was dead. Tonight, you proved them wrong." This reflection highlighted how the party has surpassed its previous standings, coming from only nine seats before the election.
Marit Stiles, leading the Ontario New Democratic Party (NDP), focused her campaign on affordable living, including pledges for grocery rebates amid Canadian inflation concerns. Stiles successfully retained her seat for Davenport and led the NDP projected victories across 25 seats, coming down from their previous position of 28. Her comments on the election night included congratulating Ford, stating: "I congratulate tonight, Premier Ford, on his victory. I really do want to offer him any possible help. The threat from Trump is real, and I deeply believe we can overcome it."
Green Party leader Mike Schreiner also saw successes, successfully getting reelected from his seat in Guelph, where he has served since 2018. His remarks after the elections included commitments to hold the government accountable: "Our job is to hold this government to account, and we’ll do so with our usual fight and determination but with love, hope, and optimism." The Greens were reported to be leading or elected in two ridings.
The dynamics of this election reveal significant insights. Laura Stephenson, a political scholar at Western University, commented on the importance of Ford's preemptive actions and the election narratives surrounding Trump’s tariffs. COVID-19 has reshaped Canadian political engagement, exacerbated by healthcare and economic pressures. "These results show how external factors—like Trump’s tariffs—can significantly shape the political climate and voter priorities," said Semra Sevi, another political expert from the University of Toronto.
While many were preoccupied with economic matters and Ford's powerful position, there were substantial criticisms directed at the healthcare system's performance. Ford had been under scrutiny for how his government dealt with emergency department access, with critics highlighting increasing patient loads and insufficient care provision.
Overall, this provincial election not only shaped the immediate political future but also set precedents for potential federal dynamics, as many analysts point to shifting public sentiment influenced by both internal party strategies and external foreign threats. With Doug Ford poised to lead with renewed vigor, the political discourse will largely focus on how effectively he leverages his majority to address both the promises made during the campaign and the pressing issues facing Ontarians.