Doug Ford has won his third consecutive majority government, successfully securing 80 seats for the Progressive Conservatives (PCs) during the provincial election held on February 27, 2025. This victory was marked by his campaign strategy of presenting himself as the best figure to tackle U.S. President Trump's looming tariff threats.
The election results showcased significant political dynamics within Ontario, particularly on the performance of the Liberal Party under newly elected leader Bonnie Crombie. Despite her vow to transform Peel Region seats from blue to red, Crombie was unable to capture her own riding of Mississauga-East Cooksville, losing to PC candidate Silvia Gualtieri by over 1,000 votes. This defeat prompted Crombie to address her supporters at the Liberal headquarters, where she expressed gratitude, stating, "Tonight, you proved them wrong."
Throughout the election night, the CTV News reported on the close races still too close to call, with notable battlegrounds including Ajax and several ridings across Toronto. Crombie's loss was among several close calls, illustrating the competitive nature of the votes.
Meanwhile, the NDP, led by Marit Stiles, celebrated their position as the Official Opposition party, increasing their presence to 27 seats. Stiles won her seat in Davenport and expressed excitement, readying her party for potential rematches against the PCs within the next election.
The dynamics of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) continued to shape the electoral results, as the PCs exhibited dominance by sweeping many ridings, particularly those north of Highway 401. The party easily retained the Vaughan seat with Stephen Lecce capturing over 64% of the vote, showcasing strong support within suburban locals.
Conversely, the denser city areas allowed for more competitive races. For example, the Liberals scored significant wins such as upsetting the PC incumbent Christine Hogarth in Etobicoke-Lakeshore, driven partly by local issues like bike lanes criticized by Hogarth and endorsed by the Ford government.
Nonetheless, the NDP maintained its stronghold within downtown Toronto, securing re-election for notable figures including Kristyn Wong-Tam and Peter Tabuns. While the NDP did manage to hold on to several key seats, they noted losses to the resurgent Liberals, particularly observable with Crombie’s strong mobilization efforts.
Doug Ford’s campaign focused heavily on his ability to address economic pressures stemming from trade relations with the U.S. For the Conservative leader, having a majority was integral to facing these challenges head-on. He faced criticism during the campaign linked to healthcare issues, particularly concerning shortages and the quality of available services.
The recent election results also drew attention to low voter turnout, which hovered around 45%, reflective of both the snowy weather on election day and the perception of the snap election as unnecessary by some voters. Elections Canada and political analysts had anticipated these numbers and suggested they would likely remain similar to previous elections due to various factors, including dissatisfaction with political choices.
Following the vote, Ford's victory is seen as consolidative, though it has raised questions about the overall political climate moving forward. Crombie's loss does not spell the end for the Liberals; the party gained 14 seats overall, recovering quickly from its previous third-party designation after significant losses during the 2018 election.
The shifting political tide included several flipped seats, with the Liberals winning Ajax and Nepean from the Conservatives, and important captures from the NDP, signifying changes within traditional party strongholds. Interestingly, the PCs managed to gain Hamilton Mountain from the NDP and were successful at flipping Algoma-Manitoulin, reflecting effective campaign strategies serving historically blue-collar demographics.
Overall, the election results from February 2025 illuminate the complexity of Ontario politics, with established parties adapting to the rising political sentiments among voters, directly affecting their electoral strategies and party leadership. Analysts expect to see the effects of this election manifest as political parties begin preparations for future contests and as the government seeks to navigate both domestic and international challenges.