TORONTO — Doug Ford's Progressive Conservatives secured their third majority government on February 28, 2025, amid swirling political uncertainties driven largely by economic factors linking Canada to the U.S. President Donald Trump's potential tariffs loomed large, but this did not deter voters from supporting Ford, who initially sought to amplify his mandate with calls for the "largest mandate in Ontario’s history."
Shortly after polls closed, the Progressive Conservatives were reported to have captured about 79 ridings, far surpassing the 63 required for a majority but shy of the 83 seats they won during their previous election. Critics decried the $189 million snap election call as unnecessary and poorly timed, aimed at seizing on favorable polling numbers.
Despite those criticisms, sentiment at the Tories' campaign headquarters was triumphant. Ford celebrated his electoral victory with his family, highlighting the significance of the night for the party. The New Democrats were projected to continue as the Official Opposition, with NDP Leader Marit Stiles securing her seat, alongside Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner, who emerged victorious in Guelph.
Significantly, the results indicated Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie was trailing behind her Progressive Conservative opponent, candidate Silvia Gualtieri, at her own riding of Mississauga East-Cooksville.
Political commentary about Ford’s victory noted its historical nature, with Conservative strategist Vivek Prabhu claiming it solidified Ford's position among Ontario's great premiers. "This has launched Doug Ford to the pantheon of the great premiers of Ontario," he remarked, emphasizing the electorate's desire for Ford's focused approach on economic matters, especially those affected by U.S. policies.
Meanwhile, campaign dynamics reflected challenges faced by the opposition. Both NDP Stiles and Liberal Crombie took Ford to task for calling the election, particularly following the distribution of $200 cheques to many residents. They characterized the election timing as strategic rather than necessary, particularly since it was the first winter election since 1981, which has historically seen lower voter turnout.
Ford’s campaign also involved his commitment of more than $40 billion to safeguard Ontario’s economy against potential tariff impacts from Trump’s administration. While this promise was met with skepticism from the opposition, it appeared to resonate with voters searching for stability amid uncertainty.
Public sentiment during the campaign reflected deep concerns over the province's healthcare problems, including long wait times and access issues affecting approximately 2.5 million Ontarians lacking family doctors. Critics pressed Ford for what they considered delayed and insufficient responses to these pressing concerns but found little traction against his campaign messaging.
There had been predictions of the PCs about achieving as many as 89 seats. With early returns indicating Ford's broad support across various regions, including Windsor and London, the party appeared to exceed expectations for the snap election.
At his campaign headquarters, Ford expressed gratitude to his supporters, saying he was eager to continue his work for Ontario. The victory was framed by many analysts as not only significant for Ford's career but also indicative of the public response to his administration’s approach during times of national uncertainty.
NDP leader Stiles, newly at the helm, faced pressure to build on the party's existing strongholds. This election marked her first as leader, and prevailing political narratives suggested the party sought to capture what they called "Blue-Orange" seats held by the PC Party currently, and successfully secured their position as the Official Opposition once again.
Despite the Liberals' aspirations for power following their past defeats in 2018 and their limited seat count post-2022, Crombie's struggles during this election meant the party looked to maintain official status, needing at least 12 seats to do so. Their early campaign slogans focused on regional hopes for recovery appeared insufficient against Ford’s solidified support.
Media narratives characterized Ford's ascent and retentions as game-changing for Ontario's political scene, with his ability to garner support even amid criticism over the emergency election signaling a sea change for provincial governance. While the results were still being finalized, early projections indicated significant shifts for many incumbents and fresh faces coming to the forefront.
Political analysts note the development echoing historical precedents, citing Ford as the first premier since Leslie Frost, who governed from 1955 to 1963, to achieve three majorities consecutively. This uncharted territory promises to both challenge and reinforce Ford’s leadership style as he prepares for the term ahead.
With final seat counts still pending, election officials prompted voters who had not yet cast their ballots prior to the 9 p.m. closing time to remain and do so, underlining the integral perspective of participation.
At the turn of events, Doug Ford’s third majority win not only builds upon his preexisting legacy but also sets the stage for future governance strategies as Ontario navigates through fluctuated landscapes affected by external political pressures and economic realities.
This election season, the evident division of voter loyalties showcases the diverse concerns held across Ontario, pushing key parties to reevaluate their standings against Ford's self-proclaimed commitment to stability and growth amid external challenges.