Doug Ford, leader of Ontario's Progressive Conservative Party, is projected to secure his third consecutive majority government following the provincial election held on February 27, 2025. This notable achievement marks a rare feat in Ontario politics.
Ford announced the snap election—which took place 15 months before its scheduled date—citing the need for clear legislative authority to confront anticipated tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump. According to early poll results reported shortly after polls closed, Ford's party is expected to win over 80 of the 124 seats in the provincial legislature.
Despite the success of the Progressive Conservative Party, the voter turnout rates have raised serious concerns. With approximately 45.36% of registered voters participating, the figures align closely with the historic low turnout of 44% observed during the 2022 elections. The Ontario elections agency noted the turnout was slightly improved from two years ago, but it still remains significantly below the 51% turnout rate recorded during the previous election in 2018.
The mixed election day weather, which included slippery roads and chaotic conditions, coupled with issues such as the late arrival of voter information cards, contributed to the low participation levels. "We are seeing a perfect storm here," noted John Beebe, founder of the Democratic Engagement Exchange at Toronto Metropolitan University. He explained, "Voters are struggling with disconnect and lack of awareness about election specifics." Voter complaint instances were documented, like those of Ellen Peters, who received her information card post-voting, and Natalie Tessier, whose mail-in ballot request was reportedly denied.
Ford's campaign famously embraced the slogan "Protect Canada," underscoring his position as he took the stage to address voters and media alike. Throughout his re-election bid, he has leveraged his growing visibility on U.S. television networks as he positions himself as the voice of Canadian resistance against economic threats posed by potential tariffs. Ford addressed the audience, stating, "Ford is the only one who can stand up to Trump and his tariff threats." He estimated dire consequences for Ontario's economy should tariffs of 25% on Canadian goods come to fruition, stating it could result in the loss of roughly 500,000 jobs.
Opposition parties criticized Ford for calling the election during such precarious economic conditions, alleging he was taking advantage of the heightened tensions with the United States to bolster his popularity. Bonnie Crombie, the leader of the Ontario Liberals, acknowledged disappointments within her party after experiencing losses but still conveyed optimism. "People counted us out. Tonight, you proved them wrong," she stated. Despite losing her own seat, Crombie was determined to maintain her leadership position and emphasized the potential for change among Ontario's voter base.
Results from specific ridings within the Ontario region demonstrated consistency among party representatives. The elections solidified existing officials, as notable candidates like Terence Kernaghan from the NDP and Steve Pinsonneault from the Conservatives retained their positions. A total of eight ridings bucked any trends, showing entrenched representation instead of shifting affiliations.
Despite the snap election followed by turbulence and complaints, Ontario faces significant political challenges and public engagement gaps. Observers have debated the balance of power and how voters comprise such alliances going forward, especially with many issues expected to hold importance like healthcare and housing affordability. Political theorists believe the similarity of platforms among candidates may have diminished motivation to participate.
Looking forward, Ford's governing body will need to navigate the varied perspectives and needs of Ontario's diverse population. While the election's outcome heralds relative stability for Ford, the challenges of low engagement and rising inequality cannot be ignored; these factors will test his leadership and require thoughtful approaches to govern effectively.
The official results from the elections are expected to be finalized by Elections Ontario within five days. While preliminary data reflects confidence from Ford’s camp, the future will depend on how effectively the administration addresses the public’s pressing concerns.