Ontario Premier Doug Ford has officially triggered a provincial election set for February 27, 2025, departing from the expected timeline by nearly 16 months. This early election call has raised eyebrows among political analysts and party leaders alike, who are questioning the rationale behind such a decision.
According to Darrell Bricker, global CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs, Ford's choice may be driven by the uncertainty of future events impacting his government. "Will things be any different 18 months from now?" he pondered. Many speculate this urgency stems from U.S. President Donald Trump's looming threats of tariffs on Canadian goods, which could significantly impact Ontario's economy.
With the Progressive Conservatives currently holding 64 percent of Ontario's legislative seats, many view this move as both strategic and opportunistic. John Milloy, director of the Centre for Public Ethics at Martin Luther University, pointed out, "They’ve been well ahead in the polls and have been seeking this opportunity for some time. Now, with opposition parties introducing new leadership, it may be the right moment to consolidate power."
The advantages for Ford and the Progressive Conservatives are significant; their opponents, including the Liberals, led by Bonnie Crombie, and the NDP, represented by Marit Stiles, are still recalibrated after leadership changes.
Ford's handling of the early election call has not gone unnoticed. The opposition parties have come together to criticize him, claiming the election is unnecessary and costly. NDP incumbent Wayne Gates, who has represented the Niagara Falls riding since 2014, commented, "The provincial election is estimated to cost upwards of $175 million, funds which could be far more appropriately spent on healthcare or affordable housing instead of this distraction of an election."
Gates is not alone; CUPE Ontario, the union representing 290,000 public sector workers, has launched its "Fire Ford" campaign. CUPE President Fred Hahn stated, "Doug Ford wants Ontarians to think this election is about the chaos beyond our borders. It’s really about his record of failure as premier over the past seven years." He underscored the dire consequences of Ford’s policies, pointing to increased hospital closures and the lack of affordable housing, saying the time has come to hold him accountable.
Seniors across the province also express concern about the intended election timing. Many, like Patricia Williams, plan to be traveling out of the country, making it difficult for them to vote. "Having the election called with such little time just reinforces skepticism about the government," she lamented. Elections Ontario is facing the challenge of ensuring all electors, especially the thousands of seniors who travel during winter months, are afforded the opportunity to participate.
Efforts to engage these voters will be difficult, as they may be forced to rely on mail-in ballots, with some residents already expressing concern about whether they will receive their ballots on time. Norma DiGiandomenico, currently traveling to her winter home, voiced her worries: "I don’t know if we’re going to get our voting kit before the election day."
Critics say the early election call disrupts the legislative process, at the very least creating uncertainty at the national level. Ford’s strategy appears to be positioning himself as the leader capable of taking decisive action against U.S. tariffs. Yet experts like Milloy argue could lead to perceived disorganization and inefficiencies. This kind of uncertainty can lead to voter skepticism.
Ford continues to assert the necessity for the early election, claiming it is to seek public support for his policies, particularly as they relate to economic challenges posed by the U.S. leadership. Regardless, if Trump’s potential tariffs become reality, this could add pressure to Ford’s government. It’s clear, as many speculate, Ford’s campaign strategy strategically aims to distract from his administration's shortcomings.
Political analysts warn of the unknown ramifications for the Progressive Conservatives. With historical electoral outcomes as cautionary tales, like the significant shift in power when David Peterson was ousted by Bob Rae after calling for a snap election, Ford’s secure position is not guaranteed. A seasoned observer noted, "The difference this time is the leadership of the opposition; they are still finding their footing. But if they rally effectively, Ford might face substantial challenges."
While early elections are becoming more common, the public's comfort with this trend remains to be seen. Many Ontario voters share concerns about the potential costs associated with calling for early governance mandates at their expense and question whether it undermines the role of maintaining order and stability at Queen’s Park.
With the election clock ticking down, it remains uncertain whether Ford’s strategy will pay off. Voters will have the final say, and as stated by CUPE’s Hahn, "We’ll use the power of our vote to put Ford on notice this election." The next few weeks will certainly determine the political fate of Ontario’s government and possibly set the tone for Canada’s political future.