On March 1, 2025, Borussia Dortmund will take on St. Pauli at Millerntor Stadion, marking the 24th matchday of the Bundesliga. This encounter is pivotal for both teams, albeit for vastly different reasons. For St. Pauli, currently sitting precariously at 15th place with 21 points, the match is about survival and securing their spot in the Bundesliga. On the other hand, Borussia Dortmund, who are positioned 10th with 32 points, aim to reignite their season and keep alive their hopes for European competition.
Kickoff is scheduled for 15:30 CET, and fans are hoping for an exciting display of football as each team has its own set of challenges and aspirations. Dortmund coach Niko Kovac enters the match with newfound confidence following his team’s recent 6-0 thrashing of Union Berlin, hoping to secure back-to-back victories for the first time this season.
Analyzing the teams, St. Pauli’s ability to stay competitive is rooted primarily in their defensive stability, having allowed only 27 goals this season. Their offense, unfortunately, leaves much to be desired, as they have only managed 18 goals to date. Coach Alexander Blessin will undoubtedly push for stronger results as they are desperately fighting against relegation.
For today’s lineups, Dortmund will start with Kobel; Couto, Can, Schlotterbeck, Bensebaini; Sabitzer, Gross; Adeyemi, Reyna, Beier, and Guirassy, with Brandt and Gittens on the bench. St. Pauli will counter with Vasilj; Nemeth, Wahl, Van der Heyden; Treu, Irvine, Smith, Ritzka; Weißhaupt, Eggestein, and Saad.
"The way we won against Union was very important. We played dynamically, aggressively and intensely," Kovac told reporters. He expressed the need to build on the momentum and acknowledged St. Pauli's compact defense, stating, "They don't necessarily score a lot of goals, but they also concede very few. That means we have to do a lot to create chances - because they are very compact.”
BVB fans are hopeful for another strong performance today. Dortmund’s attacking prowess this season has seen them score 43 goals, underlining their potential to find the back of the net often. Lokking at the statistics, both teams have historically shown scorelines with goals from both sides, and today’s fixture is expected to follow suit.
Recent history suggests Dortmund are heavy favorites, having registered only one loss against St. Pauli across their last 13 competitive encounters, including their victory earlier this season where they defeated St. Pauli 2-1. That said, the last meeting at Millerntor ended with St. Pauli claiming an unexpected victory back in January 2022, which makes this match all the more intriguing as the home side looks to greet their visitors with renewed spirit.
While the odds favor Dortmund, with bookmakers offering odds at 1.86 for their victory compared to St. Pauli’s 4.25, the unpredictable nature of football cannot be underestimated. Statistically, St. Pauli could push for goals as both sides have shown tendencies to concede. Betting odds indicate the potential for both teams to score is quite high, with plenty of analysts advocating for goals at both ends of the pitch.
The return of Julian Brandt is seen as a significant boost for Dortmund, who missed out during the Union match due to injury. Kovac mentioned, "He is an alternative for tomorrow. A muscle thing like this is not always completely without danger. We will have to make the right decisions about his participation." Meanwhile, it will be interesting to see how St. Pauli copes with the pressure, having recently suffered three consecutive defeats and needing to pull together for this challenging encounter.
Both teams are expected to utilize their best strategies and avoid missteps, especially considering recent performances. St. Pauli's previous games ended with less than desirable outcomes, raising doubts about their confidence. A strategic defensive formation will be key for them, paired with the occasional push for attack.
The match will also be broadcasted live on Eleven Sports 2 and on the Viaplay platform, catering to fans eager to catch the action. With numerous betting options available, excitement is brewing for what promises to be another thrilling chapter in the Bundesliga saga as underdogs St. Pauli face the might of Borussia Dortmund.
Looking to the future, Kovac's men will be eager to capitalize on this opportunity, especially with the looming Champions League fixtures just around the corner. After today’s match, they will set their eyes on Lille for the last-16 clash come Tuesday. Image courtesy of Getty Images.