The beginning of 2025 brings with it significant fluctuations in the value of the US dollar against various currencies, particularly the Kazakhstan tenge and the Ukrainian hryvnia. By the last day of 2024, the exchange rate for the dollar hit unprecedented marks, influencing both local economies and consumer behavior.
At the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange, the average exchange rate for the dollar settled at 525.11 tenge, reflecting a rise of 1.54 tenge from previous rates (according to Qaz365.kz). This substantial fluctuation is part of broader economic trends, where the tenge hasn't seen stability leading up to the new year. Meanwhile, the average selling price of the dollar at currency exchange points across Kazakhstan has now reached 530 tenge, which is alarming for many residents and businesses alike.
The backdrop of this dollar appreciation was the National Bank of Kazakhstan's decision to raise its base rate from 14.25% to 15.25% back on November 29, aiming to combat inflation (as noted by local economists). They assert this new dollar rate around 500 tenge could be the norm for the foreseeable future. Economist Beysembaev remarked, "Доллар по 500 – новая реальность Казахстана," indicating significant economic adjustment for the nation moving forward.
Across the border, Ukraine has seen its own currency struggles. Reports from RBK Ukraine reveal the dollar strengthened against the hryvnia, closing on New Year's Eve at 42.03 hryvnia—marking yet another historical high. The average selling price of dollar bills rose to 42.50 hryvnia, causing considerable distress among everyday consumers who rely on stable exchange rates.
The National Bank of Ukraine has also recently intervened, raising the dollar's official rate as part of its strategy to manage soaring inflation, which has approached 11.2% as of November. Through aggressive sales—over $1.6 billion—on the interbank market, the bank attempts to buffer the economic strain (credibly reported by RBK Ukraine). With these measures, the dollar's value has significantly increased over the past year, rising 4 hryvnia—up from 37.98 hryvnia just one year prior.
Experts are predicting fluctuated movements for these currencies as sanctions and geopolitical tensions continue to exert pressure on the Ukrainian economy, particularly as they correlate markedly with Russian economic policies. Taras Lesovoy, Head of the Treasury Department at Globus Bank, voiced concerns predicting, "Курс доллара в 2025 году будет колебаться," which suggests the potential for continued instability throughout this year. His analysis implies consumers and businesses must brace themselves for more turbulence.
Despite difficulties, some forecasts indicate promising support, with economist Vavryshchuk explaining, "Обещанной иностранными партнерами финансовой помощи на 2025 год вполне достаточно," which hints at potential relief for the floating value of the hryvnia—emphasizing the importance of sustained foreign aid and assistance for systemic economic recovery.
Moving forward, the trading climate remains challenging as both countries grapple with fluctuated currency pressures and resultant inflationary trends. Stakeholders will be closely monitoring decisions made by their respective central banks and the resulting currency valuations with hopes of stabilization. The broader picture is dotted with uncertainty—yet the resilience of the tenge and hryvnia will be rigorously tested as inflation battles continue.