The dollar's exchange rate fell below 81 rubles on March 18, 2025, marking a significant decline not seen since June 2024. This economic shift has raised concerns about potential impacts on domestic prices, as explained by economist Nikolai Kulbaka. In a conversation with NEWS.ru, he suggested that the drop in the dollar stems from issues surrounding imports, leading to a decreased demand for foreign currency needed to purchase imported goods.
"Why is the dollar falling? I'm worried that the main problem lies within the import sector. As import issues arise, the demand for currency to buy imported products falls. This will eventually lead to rising prices domestically and a scarcity of imported goods, but for now, it's strengthening the ruble," Kulbaka elaborated. He noted that accurately predicting the dollar's trajectory in the short term is challenging, amid fluctuating market conditions.
Currently, Russia's economic landscape heavily relies on hydrocarbon exports, making a weaker ruble advantageous for the nation's budget. However, the current high ruble value poses challenges, particularly for the budget. Kulbaka emphasized that short-term fluctuations in the dollar's value are expected to continue, but he could not provide any assurances about its future direction.
In a related analysis, economist and political scientist Nikita Maslennikov speculated that the ruble's strength might be linked to ongoing negotiations between Russia and the USA regarding the Ukrainian conflict. "The ruble will hold steady due to geopolitical expectations. Additionally, the Central Bank's decision on March 21 regarding the interest rate is likely to maintain rates at the current 21% level," he added. This decision is pivotal in stabilizing the ruble during these uncertain times.
Looking forward to April 2025, Maslennikov predicts that the trend towards ruble strengthening will weaken, projecting that the dollar could range from 85 to 90 rubles. He noted that this projection hinges on fundamental economic indicators and the macroeconomic situation. While the trade and payment balance appear relatively favorable now, concerns about potential budget deficits remain that could escalate inflationary pressures, impacting the ruble's valuation.
Meanwhile, the dollar's exchange rate was officially set at 84.3059 rubles, and the euro at 90.8443 rubles on the same day, according to the Central Bank. The termination of trading in currencies of unfriendly nations has changed how these exchange rates are determined, as highlighted by Bogdan Zvarich, chief analyst at Banki.ru. The current methodology utilizes banking reports and data from over-the-counter trading digital platforms, adapting to new market realities.
On the interbank market, the dollar's rate recently dipped below 82 rubles for the first time since June 23, 2023, reaching 81.98 rubles per dollar. Vladimir Chernov from Freedom Finance Global remarked on the influence of news cycles on exchange rates, emphasizing that geopolitical tensions play a significant role. “A geopolitical thaw attracts investors to Russian assets, leading to a surge in foreign capital and consequently lowering the dollar's value relative to the ruble,” he explained.
As evidence of the ruble's stability, Andrei Barkhota, another economist, reported that the ruble has appreciated over 25% since the start of 2025. This remarkable strengthening reinforces the notion of market volatility affected by external factors. Analysts from Finam noted a psychological threshold in asset valuations, suggesting investors typically cease selling when prices dip to a significant level, prompting renewed purchases and thus increasing asset prices. Alexander Potavin from Finam indicated that should the dollar approach the psychological barrier of 80-82 rubles, further strengthening of the ruble may halt, although a temporary dip towards 80 rubles cannot be ruled out.
Despite the uncertainty, fundamentals still suggest a strong outlook for the ruble, as the Central Bank continues to improve its balance of payments assessments. This situation indicates that Russia is exporting more and importing less, resulting in a robust inflow of currency. Moreover, Russian authorities are also selling yuan, which contributes to a stable currency influx.
In summary, while the dollar's recent decline has implications for domestic pricing and overall economic stability in Russia, local experts remain cautiously optimistic about the future. The interplay of geopolitical relations, market dynamics, and fundamental economic indicators will guide the ruble's journey in the upcoming months. As the Russian economy adapts to these evolving situations, the financial market remains vigilant.
