With the close of 2024 drawing near, expectations for the dollar exchange rate within the Ukrainian banking sector remain stable, according to forecaster Taras Lesovoy, head of treasury at Globus Bank. Given the absence of significant market-shifting events expected in the coming days, Lesovoy notes, the fluctuations should be minor and manageable.
"We're not likely to see extraordinary events impacting the currency market next week, as there's no solid basis for such changes," he stated, referencing the stability observed throughout the year. According to Lesovoy, major dollar fluctuations should fall within the relatively narrow corridor of 41.6 to 41.9 hryvnias per dollar at the interbank level.
On the cash market, particularly around currency exchanges and bank branches, the dollar is anticipated to hover between 41.7 and 42.2 hryvnias. Currently, Ukrainian banks are buying dollars at approximately 41.7 hryvnias and selling them for around 42.19 hryvnias, indicating the possibility of slight increases as market dynamics shift.
This forecast places the cash market's potential daily dollar movements within the range of 0.1 to 0.3 hryvnias both up and down, maintaining the established rate adjustments of 1-1.5% seen weekly. The projected operational picture for the near term includes:
- Interbank market: 41.6-41.9 UAH/dollar
- Cash market: 41.7-42.2 UAH/dollar
- Average disparity between interbank rates and cash market rates: 0.3-0.5 UAH
- Weekly rate deviation expectations at 1-1.5%
Lesovoy emphasized the influence of seasonal dynamics on demand for cash dollars as the end of the year approaches. He anticipates increased purchases driven by year-end bonuses and the holiday shopping season. While consumers may seek to secure their savings from inflation through foreign currency investments, there will also be plenty of market liquidity as others sell their savings to fund holiday expenses.
"This seasonality could keep supply and demand balanced on the cash market, staving off significant fluctuations," he commented. The treasurer also noted the National Bank of Ukraine's (NBU) continuing presence as a central player, employing strategies meant to buffer against inflation spikes and maintain equilibrium within the currency exchange framework.
"The implementation of managed flexibility remains key for maintaining market stability, allowing some breathing room for supply-demand fluctuations without precipitating meltdown scenarios," he added.
Looking beyond the immediate future, forecasts for 2025 suggest minimal exchange rate disturbances, as analysts predict the dollar will settle around 45.7 hryvnias by year's end, slightly above the NBU's budgeted average rate of 45 hryvnias.
There is also cautious optimism reflected through various banking sources such as OBOZ.UA, with forecasts highlighting potential year-end closures at approximately 42.2 hryvnias for dollar transactions.
This guarded yet optimistic outlook, coupled with the seasoned experience of the NBU's interventions, may provide the stabilization necessary to protect the hryvnia against unexpected shifts brought on by external economic pressures.
