Experts predict the dollar may drop to 80 rubles, but this decline is expected to be short-lived due to various geopolitical and economic factors reshaping currency markets.
The official dollar exchange rate established by the Central Bank of Russia for March 18, 2025, is 84.3059 rubles, with the euro set at 90.8443 rubles. Yet, recent trading data reflects fluctuations, with the dollar falling below 82 rubles on the interbank market, reaching 81.98 rubles—its lowest point since June 23, 2023.
Market analysts attribute this phenomenon to several converging factors, primarily the anticipated negotiations between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Ivan Orlov, a financial consultant and practicing investor, explained, "This drop is due to weak demand from currency importers, among other factors." He also noted the substantial sales of foreign currency earnings by Russian exporters, which have contributed to the dollar's decline.
The geopolitical climate plays a pivotal role, with investor optimism swelling as tensions appear to ease. Natalia Pyryeva, the leading analyst at 'Tsifra Broker,' elaborated, "Geopolitical de-escalation attracts investors to Russian assets, increasing the influx of foreign money." This influx can drive down the value of the dollar against the ruble, creating expectations for its future movements.
Andrei Barkhota, another economist, has highlighted the ruble’s significant recovery, stating, "The ruble has strengthened by more than 25% since the start of the year." It appears the currency can rally if driven by favorable news and investor sentiment.
Despite the reduction to 81.98 rubles, analysts assert the dollar will see resistance at around 80–82 rubles. Alexander Potavin, from FG 'Finam,' forecasted, "When the dollar reaches this level, the strengthening of the ruble is likely to cease. Nonetheless, we cannot rule out the potential for the dollar to dip to around 80 rubles yet again."
On the business front, the dollar exchange rate dropped to 83 rubles during trading on March 17, as the market reacted to heightened anticipation surrounding the upcoming leaders' negotiations. Overall, the exchange rate was influenced by broader market trends, including significant fluctuations on the Forex interbank currency market, where the dollar recently dropped below 85 rubles for the first time since August 2024.
The rapid changes currently observed reflect the volatility of financial markets heavily influenced by external political factors. Experts express mixed sentiments about the future; some suggest the dollar could rebound, estimating it might return to 100 rubles, albeit forecasts vary significantly. For example, BCS expects the ruble to strengthen yet again this week, followed by anticipated weakening over the next month.
Analysts from 'Expert RA' offered their predictions for the dollar, projecting it to stabilize around 97 rubles on average, with expectations to hit 102 rubles by year-end, which emphasizes the unpredictable nature of market forces acting on currency rates.
Analysts urge caution as they navigate this unstable terrain. The situation indicates potential long-term effects on the trade balance as the Central Bank gradually improves estimates of the payment balance. This improvement signifies increased exports and reduced imports, which, according to Barkhota, helps contribute to the ruble's strengthening against the dollar.
With convergence of demand shifts and external geopolitical influences, experts stress the need for close monitoring of market developments. The interplay of policies, investor trust, and exchange rate expectations may form the foundation for the ruble's performance moving forward.
While many are optimistic about the currency's future, it remains pivotal for investors to be fully aware of the various indicators at play. Expectations surrounding international relations and their subsequent impact on the currency market could create unexpected turns.
