The recent dynamics of the dollar's value have sparked significant debate, particularly in Russia, where concerns over the currency's fluctuations continue to rise. As of March 20, 2025, analyst Elena Gurinovich has highlighted that the primary factor impacting the dollar's trajectory is the prevailing economic and political climate in the United States. Gurinovich pointed out that changes in government are largely perceived negatively by market participants both domestically and on the international stage.
Gurinovich noted, "Against the backdrop of governmental changes, shifts are occurring in both the domestic and external environment, which market participants perceive differently, but predominantly in a negative light." This sentiment coincides with Donald Trump's tariff plans, which have infused considerable uncertainty and instability into the global economy and could pose negative consequences for the U.S. itself.
Indeed, the dollar has been depreciating against foreign currencies since the start of the year, not just against the ruble. Analysts are finding it challenging to pinpoint where the lower threshold for the ruble might lie, but some suggest that it could fall below 80 rubles per dollar under favorable circumstances. Gurinovich remarked, "This information is for informational purposes only and is not individual investment advice." Meanwhile, another economist, Alena Gabudina from Tyumen Industrial University, emphasized the deep geopolitical factors at play.
Gabudina pointed out the current favorable position of Russia in the geopolitical arena had positively influenced the strengthening of the ruble. In discussions about the dollar, she commented, "The main reason for the ruble's strengthening is related to the geopolitical situation. However, most economists agree that the current situation is unsustainable and do not predict the dollar falling below 80 rubles for any extended period." While some projections foresee the dollar rising to 105 rubles by the end of the year, others anticipate a long-term strengthening of the ruble.
She also explained that the economy is currently experiencing conditions atypical for classical economics. Gabudina stated, "It is very difficult to forecast now, as everything is usually tied to the dollar, oil prices, and interest rates. However, the key factor at this moment is the geopolitical situation: how quickly the military operations will conclude, whether sanctions will be lifted, and whether foreign investors will return to our market." This uncertainty is reflected in the fluctuating dollar rates, which reached a high of 85.3813 rubles earlier on March 20, before dropping back to 84.2247 rubles by the afternoon.
According to the Central Bank's official exchange rate set for March 20, the dollar was valued at 84.3059 rubles. This marked a notable peak since it briefly dropped below 81 rubles earlier this month. On March 18, the dollar had surged to a record high since June 2024, coinciding with predictions that the dollar could climb to 110 rubles if extraordinary circumstances do not intervene.
Alternatively, Gurinovich suggested that recent fluctuations hint at a return of traders to the market, although they may not expect significant increases in the ruble's value toward 65–60 rubles against the dollar any time soon. The fluctuating dollar rate is not an isolated phenomenon; secondary effects can be seen in the broader context of a declining import rate as a result of stringent new U.S. sanctions coupled with geopolitical tensions.
Moreover, a recent analysis indicates the dollar now sits approximately 6% lower on the global market compared to its peak, directly correlating with various market dynamics, including governmental changes and uncertainties revolving around President Trump's tariff policies, which have left investors in a state of apprehension. This high level of uncertainty is stimulating critical fluctuations in the exchange rate of the dollar.
On March 21, 2025, the Central Bank further updated its official rates, reflecting a continued decline in the ruble's value against the dollar, now standing at 84.3955 rubles, which reflects a 1.5468 ruble increase from the previous day. The euro has also risen in value, demonstrating similar trends in other global currencies.
Bogdan Zvarich, chief analyst at Banki.ru, noted the recent changes in the methodology of the Central Bank's currency valuations resulting from the absence of trading with currencies deemed unfriendly. Zvarich explained that the Central Bank now relies on banking reports as well as data from OTC trading platforms to set these exchange rates. He underscored that these actions have substantially altered domestic foreign exchange dynamics.
While the yuan remains actively traded on the Moscow Exchange, the strength and fluctuations of the ruble against the dollar and other main currencies continue to be influenced by a myriad of challenging factors, including economic cycles, trade balances, and foreign market dynamics. Economic professionals remain guarded in their assessments, acknowledging that any changes in global political situations, especially in relation to sanctions and international trade, could further reconfigure the ruble-dollar paradigm.
As the year progresses, forecasts remain uncertain, particularly concerning the expected strengthening of the ruble that analysts predict may ultimately revert by mid-year to levels between 90-100 rubles per dollar, given the current conditions faced by Russian and Belarusian economies. Until significant external economic shifts occur—especially pertaining to trade restrictions and diplomatic engagements—stability in currency rates is likely to remain elusive.
In summary, as experts navigate the ongoing discourse surrounding the dollar and ruble dynamics amid prevailing geopolitical tensions, the necessity for transparency and adaptability in the financial market has never been more evident.
