Detroit’s automakers are facing a crisis that few saw coming—a sudden and severe shortage of aluminum, triggered by a fire at a key smelter in New York. The repercussions have rippled across the industry, leaving assembly lines idle, workers on furlough, and analysts warning of billion-dollar losses. The incident, which began as a late-night blaze at the Novelis plant in Oswego, New York in September 2025, has rapidly escalated into one of the most disruptive events for U.S. carmakers in recent memory.
According to Reuters, the fire at Novelis halted production at a facility responsible for supplying about 36% of the aluminum used by the U.S. automotive sector. The Atlanta-based Novelis, which provides nearly half of the aluminum required by American automakers, counts Ford, General Motors, Rivian, Toyota, Nissan, Volkswagen, and Stellantis among its clients. With this critical supply line severed, the impact was immediate and widespread.
Ford Motor Company, the nation’s leading producer of light vehicles, was hit especially hard. Its Dearborn Truck Assembly plant, home of the best-selling F-150 pickup, saw its output slashed by half. The disruption didn’t stop there—Ford also paused production at three additional plants, including its Kentucky Truck Plant in Louisville, where the high-margin Expedition and Lincoln Navigator SUVs are built. By the week of October 14, two-thirds of the Kentucky facility remained operational, but the Super Duty pickup line, some models of which retail for over $100,000, was already scaling back. Thousands of workers in Michigan and Kentucky found themselves collecting unemployment as a result.
Stellantis, another major player, confirmed that its Warren Truck Assembly plant in Michigan—where luxury Jeep Wagoneer and Grand Wagoneer SUVs are produced—would be shut down for three weeks in October. This closure is expected to delay the launch of the highly anticipated 2026 Grand Wagoneer, which will debut with a cutting-edge range-extended electric vehicle (REEV) hybrid powertrain. The REEV system combines a 3.6-liter V6 engine, a 130-kilowatt generator, and two electric motors, delivering a robust 647 horsepower and 620 pound-feet of torque with an estimated range exceeding 500 miles per tank. The setback is a blow for Stellantis, which had hoped to showcase its technological leap in hybrid vehicles.
For Ford, the aluminum crisis couldn’t have come at a worse time. The company’s all-electric F-150 Lightning, produced at the Rouge Electric Vehicle Center in Dearborn, was also sidelined starting October 13. Industry experts warn that the downtime could last for several weeks, especially since the Novelis plant isn’t expected to resume operations until the first quarter of 2026. As Sam Fiorani, vice president of Global Vehicle Forecasting at AutoForecast Solutions, told the Detroit Free Press, “Unless Ford can find an alternative source quickly, a three-month gap in aluminum production will interrupt production of the Super Duty, Ford Expedition, Lincoln Navigator and Ford F-150, among other models.”
The stakes are high for Ford. The F-Series is the company’s most important product line, both in terms of volume and profit margins, which sometimes reach an impressive 20%. “The F-150 is the single most important product at Ford,” Fiorani emphasized. “The revenue and profits Ford derives from its F-150 and the Super Duty pickups means Ford will do everything to keep those assembly lines moving, even if that means slowing the production of other vehicles.”
Financial analysts are sounding the alarm. Evercore ISI estimates that the fire’s impact could cost Ford $1 billion in lost profits for the fourth quarter alone. Morningstar Autos Analyst David Whiston described this as a “worst-case scenario,” but noted that the true extent of the damage depends on how quickly Ford can secure alternative aluminum supplies. “Five days isn’t going to ruin the quarter’s earnings, though it’s not good either and stoppages of various vehicles totaling more than five days of Q4 is possible,” Whiston said. Inventory levels for the Navigator and Expedition SUVs were already down over 33% and 43% respectively from the previous year, adding further pressure.
Ford spokeswoman Jessica Enoch told the Detroit Free Press that the company has a dedicated team working on the aluminum shortage and is collaborating closely with Novelis. “Novelis is one of several aluminum suppliers to Ford. Since the fire nearly three weeks ago, Ford has been working closely with Novelis, and a full team is dedicated to addressing the situation and exploring all possible alternatives to minimize any potential disruptions,” Enoch stated in an email. She declined to provide specifics about production adjustments, saying more details would be shared during Ford’s earnings report on October 23.
The aluminum shortage is just one facet of a broader supply-chain crisis gripping the auto industry. Shortages of semiconductors and rare-earth minerals, compounded by geopolitical tensions, threaten to exacerbate the situation. For example, the Dutch chipmaker Nexperia, after being seized from its Chinese owner by the Netherlands government, stopped shipments when China retaliated by blocking exports from the parent company. European automakers reportedly have only a few weeks’ worth of Nexperia chips left, raising fears of a global slowdown in auto production.
Automakers are scrambling to adapt. Stellantis has announced a $13 billion U.S. investment plan aimed at offsetting the impact of tariffs and supply disruptions. Ford is exploring all available options to secure alternative aluminum sources, but the process is complicated by tariffs on imported metals. President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on autos and auto parts are expected to cost Ford an additional $2 billion in 2025, and a 50% tariff on imported aluminum makes sourcing from outside the U.S. both difficult and expensive.
The cost pressures are already being felt by consumers. According to USA TODAY, the average price of a new vehicle in the U.S. now hovers around $50,000, with total sales for 2025 projected to edge slightly above 15.9 million units. The combination of high prices, supply bottlenecks, and tariff-induced costs is squeezing both automakers and buyers, with little relief in sight.
Industry leaders and union officials are bracing for more turbulence. While some workers have been shifted to other jobs, the threat of further layoffs looms large if the supply situation doesn’t improve. As Fiorani put it, “Halting production of the Lightning and big SUVs allows Ford to focus on production of the important F-150 and it keeps two plants running with nearly 10,000 workers relying on those jobs.” Still, “if Ford sees the need to halt production at any of its truck plants, the automaker is dealing with a big problem.”
With Novelis working around the clock to restore its damaged facility and automakers scrambling for solutions, the coming months will test the resilience of Detroit’s manufacturing giants. For now, the aluminum crisis stands as a stark reminder of just how vulnerable even the most established industries can be to a single, unexpected spark.
