The tourism industry in the United States is facing a significant downturn as interest in travel to the country declines sharply. According to preliminary data released by the National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO) on April 8, 2025, the number of foreign visitors to the U.S. dropped by 11.6 percent in March compared to the same month last year. This decline is particularly notable as it comes after a year in which international visitor numbers had been expected to rebound strongly.
Experts attribute this downturn to a combination of factors, including President Donald Trump’s tariffs and controversial rhetoric, which have alienated potential travelers. Reports of tourists being arrested at the U.S. border have further fueled concerns, leading many to seek alternative destinations. The NTTO's figures do not include arrivals from Canada or Mexico, but analysts predict that these numbers will also reflect a downward trend due to ongoing trade disputes.
In March 2025, approximately 7.1 million visitors from abroad entered the U.S., which is 260,000 fewer than during the same period in 2024. The decline has prompted tourism forecasting firms, such as Tourism Economics, to revise their earlier projections, which had predicted a 9 percent increase in international arrivals. Now, they anticipate a decline of 9.4 percent for the year.
Among the hardest-hit demographics are travelers from Western Europe, where arrivals decreased by about 17 percent. Notably, Germany experienced a staggering 28 percent drop, with only around 139,000 arrivals recorded. The situation is echoed in other European nations, with France reporting an 8 percent decrease and Spain seeing a 25 percent decline.
Marco Jahn, President and CEO of the California-based tour operator New World Travel, noted that bookings have plummeted between 20 and 50 percent depending on the country of origin. He remarked, "The USA is no longer perceived as a hospitable travel destination." This sentiment is echoed across the industry, with many travel agencies reporting an increase in cancellations and a significant decline in travel intentions.
Travel from Canada, which was the largest source of visitors to the U.S. in 2024, is also expected to decline sharply. The Canadian booking platform Flight Centre Travel Group Canada reported a 40 percent decrease in vacation bookings to the U.S. in March compared to the previous year. This decline is attributed to Trump's contentious remarks about Canada potentially becoming the 51st state of the U.S., as well as the imposition of tariffs.
In addition to the decline in visitors from North America and Europe, the number of travelers from Asia has also dropped, with a nearly 1 percent decrease in arrivals from China. Wolfgang Georg Arlt from the China Outbound Tourism Research Institute highlighted that leisure trips to popular destinations like Disneyland, Hawaii, and New York have decreased significantly. He referred to this phenomenon as the "Trump Effect," suggesting that such trends may not change until after Trump's presidency.
Interestingly, the Middle East has shown an opposite trend, with an 18 percent increase in arrivals. Countries like Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Israel have all seen significant growth in visitor numbers, indicating a complex global travel landscape.
The U.S. tourism sector had initially anticipated a strong recovery in 2025, buoyed by a surge in international travel following the pandemic. However, the current data suggests that these hopes may be dashed. The ramifications of this decline could be substantial, with estimates indicating that international tourist spending in the U.S. could fall by as much as nine billion dollars this year.
Travelers from Scandinavia have also been notably affected, with significant declines reported in countries like Denmark, which saw a 34 percent drop. The backlash against Trump's remarks regarding Greenland has likely contributed to this decline. Additionally, the Californian tour operator American Ring Travel has reported stagnating bookings from Germany, attributing this to Elon Musk's support for a right-wing populist party in the recent federal elections.
As the U.S. tourism industry grapples with these challenges, stakeholders are left to ponder the long-term impacts of political rhetoric and policy decisions on travel perceptions and behaviors. The data released by the NTTO serves as a stark reminder of the interconnectedness of global travel and the influence of national policies on international relations.
In summary, the decline in foreign visitors to the United States marks a troubling trend for the tourism industry, which had hoped for a robust recovery in 2025. With growing concerns over political rhetoric and economic policies, the U.S. may need to reassess its approach to international tourism to regain its status as a desirable travel destination.
