Sharp Drop in College Enrollment Raises Alarm
Fewer high school graduates began college this fall, with enrollment for this age group plummeting by 5 percent compared to last year, according to analysis by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. This trend poses significant challenges for colleges and universities, especially for those heavily reliant on tuition revenue.
Public four-year institutions experienced the most substantial impact, reporting an 8.5 percent decrease in first-year enrollments, with private nonprofit colleges seeing a 6.5 percent decline. The changing scene puts pressure on institutions to adapt and innovate, amid worries about the future.
Bill DeBaun, senior director of the National College Attainment Network (NCAN), referred to the decline among recent high school graduates as “very large and very discouraging.” He highlighted several contributors to this alarming drop, including the Supreme Court’s 2023 ruling against affirmative action, regional declines in high school graduates, and the lure of attractive job options leading many to choose immediate employment over college.
Among these factors, the shoddy rollout of the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) stands out. Data from NCAN detailed an 11.5 percent drop year-over-year for FAFSA completions among high school seniors as of June 2023, which indicates students are finding financial aid processes confusing and unmanageable.
Meanwhile, at Mohawk College, financial struggle led to layoffs as they grappled with a projected $50 million deficit for the 2025-2026 academic year. Difficulty retaining international students amid federal policy changes stoked these challenges, as they relied heavily on tuition from these students.
Formal layoffs at Mohawk began targeting non-unionized administrative positions; several key roles were cut as the first phase of cost-cutting measures. Further layoffs are anticipated, impacting unionized faculty and support staff, adding to the succession of cutbacks across the education sector.
Skyline College illustrated the wider issues affecting college enrollment across the U.S. Recent reports revealed undergraduate degree earners dropped by 2.8 percent within two years. Students interviewed attributed their decisions to financial pressures and desired flexibility between work commitments and education. Some have found success by turning to certificate programs over traditional degree paths, indicating adaptation to job market demands.
Julie J Park, an education professor, explained the broader trend is complicated by potential “enrollment cliffs” stemming from historical low birth rates post-Recession. Birth rates have had significant dips for years, leading to fewer traditional-age students entering college.
Park recounted how labor market conditions divert potential students from pursuing higher education. The recent high demands for labor have made working seem more appealing than investing time and money in degrees, which many students view as unviable under current tuition costs.
The financial burden of higher education is underscored by rising tuition fees. Recent reports indicated the average cost for public four-year colleges climbed to $11,610 for in-state students, with out-of-state fees averaging $30,780, both experiencing increases. With such financial pressures, many young adults factor household financial stability heavily before committing to college.
Rickard, CEO of Common App, affirmed, “The continued growth in applications indicates students remain eager to pursue higher education.” Still, affordability and support structures remain unresolved barriers.
Through the free college initiative, Skyline College reported improvements to its enrollment figures for the past year. Programmatic innovations aim to alleviate these pressures by providing more accessible pathways for students—and these adjustments indicate community colleges may potentially offer sustainable solutions amid systemic crises.
Investment in community colleges could provide students with valuable academic experiences and workplace readiness. Collaborative programs are also being created to improve graduation rates and bridge financial gaps affecting enrollment, which could create renewed engagement across college sectors.
While the competition for students escalates, institutions must respond dynamically, addressing the challenges of financial aid, workplace pressures, and shifting demographics to help maintain student populations.