Daniil Medvedev, once the world’s top-ranking tennis player, began 2025 much like his previous season: battling to regain his form. Despite welcoming his second child and hoping for a fresh start, Medvedev's early performance has not lived up to high expectations. The current incarnation of this Russian talent is far removed from the champion who seized victory at the US Open in 2021 and ascended to the pinnacle of the ATP rankings.
Seeking to reverse his fortunes, Medvedev has explored every avenue to reclaim his confidence. His recent decision to part ways with coach Gilles Simon highlights the depth of his struggles. Medvedev described the split as stemming from a disconnect between their visions and persistently disappointing results over the past year. Nonetheless, the beginning of 2025 showed flickers of hope for Medvedev. He demonstrated signs of returning to form at the Doha ATP 500, where he secured victories against fellow Russian Karen Khachanov and Zizou Bergs. Unfortunately, his progress was abruptly halted during the quarterfinals when he had to withdraw from the match against Felix Auger-Aliassime due to food poisoning.
Medvedev's frustration came to the fore as he departed the court without the customary handshake, later attributing his withdrawal to illness. “I was preparing for the match against Felix with my athletic trainer, and I soon realized I was completely drained,” he explained. “It was then I realized I had food poisoning. I was convinced I was headed for the hospital, but thankfully I felt somewhatbetter the next day,” he expressed during his pre-tournament press conference.
With his health back on track, the 2021 US Open champion arrived earlier than scheduled for the Dubai Tennis Championships eager to break his trophy drought. Medvedev is set to face German powerhouse Jan-Lennard Struff, whom he had previously bested at the Marseille tournament just weeks prior. His fans are undoubtedly hopeful for him to regain his form and once again ascend to the top of his game.
Before the ATP Dubai matches, expert predictions gave Medvedev a strong statistical advantage, providing him with around a 70% chance of winning against Struff based on highly sophisticated models evaluating their past performances. “By incorporating recent updates and various factors, our prediction shows Daniil Medvedev with a win probability of 70%, compared to 30% for Jan-Lennard Struff,” remarked Greg Butyn, a data analyst at Dimers.
These odds were mirrored across various betting platforms as his strong past head-to-head results positioned him as the favorite. After recently recovering from food poisoning, he is now focused on securing another significant win. “I see two points of view. One is, lately it has been tough for me. My level has dropped. I lost more matches than I typically do,” Medvedev recounted. Despite the setbacks, he retained confidence, asserting: “when I play my best tennis, I can beat anyone!”
The Russian player addressed his aspirations for future tournaments, especially emphasizing his goal of winning another Grand Slam titled. He stated, “If I manage to return to my form after competing here, there are chances of winning another Grand Slam or more. If I don’t, it will become tougher.” Medvedev's history speaks volumes: he has claimed one Grand Slam with five finals under his belt, with the most recent being against Jannik Sinner at the 2024 Australian Open.
Competing at Dubai marks yet another opportunity for Medvedev to demonstrate his caliber. Last year's triumph at the same event still lingers, where he knocked out top seeds and secured the title against former champions. Medvedev is currently the top seed at the ATP 500 hard court tournament and has already proven his mettle against Struff throughout their eight previous encounters, winning seven. Medvedev is aiming to replicate and build upon past successes as he re-establishes himself as one of tennis's formidable forces.
Competitors and fans alike are eager for Medvedev to capitalize on his opportunities. His potential resurgence against Struff will set the tone for the rest of his season and possibly his quest for another Grand Slam. The tennis world is watching closely, expecting Medvedev to rise and fight back, rekindling the spark of brilliance he has demonstrated earlier in his career. The upcoming match at the Aviation Club Tennis Centre promises excitement and anticipation as Medvedev seeks not only victory but also confidence and renewal as he strides through the 2025 season.