The 2024 Croatian Presidential Election is set to take place on December 29, with incumbent president Zoran Milanović aiming to secure another term amid fierce competition against several challengers, including Dragan Primorac from the ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ).
With over 3.7 million registered voters eligible to participate, the stakes are high. Polling shows Milanović leading with 39.3% support, followed by Primorac at 24.3%. This election is already marked by intense political rhetoric as it occurs shortly after recent parliamentary and European elections.
Political analysts suggest Milanović, the former Prime Minister, remains the favorite due to his popularity and known as one of Croatia's most colorful political figures. Critics voice concern over his populist tendencies, particularly his harsh critique of EU military support for Ukraine during its conflict with Russia. "No Croatian soldier will take part in somebody else’s war," he stated, embodying his stance through the election.
Dragan Primorac, positioning himself as the unifier relative to Milanović's more polarizing persona, has emphasized Croatia's alignment with Western ideals by phrasing, "Croatia's place is in the West, not the East." Nonetheless, Primorac's campaign has been overshadowed by recent corruption scandals involving key members of his party, which could dampen his overall appeal.
Experts observe the potential for voter fatigue during this election season. Nada Zgrabljic Rotar, a former professor of journalism, noted, "We should also keep in mind…people are tired of the elections and rhetoric…" indicating the populace's desire for fresh topics and approaches.
Milanović's campaign has witnessed him embracing open, populist rhetoric, often challenging Prime Minister Andrej Plenković of the HDZ. Their persistent feud has become a highlight of Croatian politics, with Milanović's remarks routinely criticizing the EU’s actions and Plenković's governance.
The Croatian presidency, though largely ceremonial, still carries significant political clout as the commander-in-chief of the military. Observers point out the importance of this election not just for leadership but for overall governance and checks on the ruling party's power.
Among the other candidates is Ivana Kekin, representing the left-green Možemo! party. She describes herself as "a president for a new generation" and has critiqued both the HDZ and Primorac for purportedly siphoning resources from the Croatian healthcare system. Her stance resonates with younger voters disillusioned by current politics.
Another prominent contender is conservative independent Marija Selak Raspudić, polling third, noted for her focus on economic issues and population decline as Croatia grapples with pressing concerns over corruption and economic sustainability. Analysts speculate her liberal past with the right-wing Most party could play to her advantage if she makes it to the second round of voting.
Historical voting patterns indicate this approach has merit. Davor Gjenero, political analyst, pointed out, "Milanović's re-election could benefit democracy by balancing the ruling party's dominance over other institutions." This balance may empower minority voices and alternative viewpoints within the Croatian political arena.
Voting will not only occur within Croatia but also across 105 polling stations established worldwide, particularly concentrated in Bosnia and Herzegovina, which hosts the largest group of voters residing abroad. The drop of nearly 100,000 registered voters compared to previous elections has led to concerns about participation.
Crucially, if no candidate secures more than 50% of the vote, as expected, Croatia will witness its first runoff election since 2019 on January 12, 2025. This twist adds unpredictability to the existing electoral atmosphere.
Analysts remain focused on both Milanović and Primorac’s performances, as well as how well candidates like Kekin and Selak Raspudić capitalize on their platforms. Tihomir Cipek, another analyst, waved off the notion of predictable outcomes, asserting, "It is a duel between the prime minister and president, which is a constant of Croatia's politics for the past decade."
With the election imminent, the Croatian political spotlight remains firmly fixed on the contest, highlighting the clash of ideologies, generational shifts, and potential for both opportunity and upheaval within the fabric of their democracy.
