On Monday, April 7, 2025, the Brazilian corn futures market opened positively, with prices fluctuating between R$ 71.31 and R$ 77.53 by around 10:14 AM (Brasilia time). The May/25 maturity was quoted at R$ 77.53, marking an increase of 1.48%, while the July/25 was valued at R$ 71.87, reflecting a rise of 0.87%. Additionally, the September/25 was traded at R$ 71.31, up 0.79%, and the November/25 reached R$ 74.00, gaining 0.87%.
Despite the positive start in Brazil, international corn futures prices on the Chicago Stock Exchange (CBOT) displayed negative movements around 10:05 AM (Brasilia time). The May/25 maturity was quoted at US$ 4.59, down 1.00 point; the July/25 dropped to US$ 4.66, also down 1.00 point; the September/25 was at US$ 4.38, a decrease of 0.75 points; and the December/25 fell to US$ 4.45, losing 1.50 points.
According to Farm Futures, corn futures had performed relatively well the previous week, even in light of the USDA's forecast of a larger-than-expected planted area and President Trump's announcement regarding sweeping tariffs that impacted financial markets. Bruce Blythe, an analyst at Farm Futures, commented, "However, the long-term implications of tariffs for U.S. agriculture are concerning, considering how global buyer patterns shifted after Trump's trade war during his first term."
As the day progressed, the Brazilian corn market experienced a slight downturn. Information from TF Agroeconomic indicated that corn on the São Paulo Stock Exchange (B3) closed down 0.24% after nearly reaching R$ 75.00 earlier in the day. The weekly drop for May was recorded at -0.68%, while the Cepea average fell by 3.69%, ending the week at R$ 84.63.
The rise in the dollar has also diminished the competitiveness of corn exports, which have increasingly been directed towards the domestic market during the week. The USDA-FAS projected that the 25/26 harvest could reach a volume of 130 million tons, driven by high prices in Brazil, potentially encouraging producers to invest in corn.
On the B3, the May/25 maturity closed at R$ 76.39, down R$ 0.24 on the day and down R$ 0.68 for the week. The July/25 maturity finished at R$ 71.23, reflecting a decrease of R$ 0.35 on the day and R$ 0.91 for the week. The September/25 maturity closed at R$ 70.76, down R$ 0.09 on the day and down R$ 0.66 for the week.
Meanwhile, the corn market on the Chicago Stock Exchange closed the day with mixed results, supported by demand and weather conditions. The May quotation, which serves as a reference for the summer harvest, ended up 0.60% or $2.75 cents/bushel at $460.25. Another May contract closed up 0.38% or $1.75 cents/bushel at $467.25.
Despite significant declines in the stock market and soybean prices, the corn market remained resilient, buoyed by strong domestic and international demand. The fact that the two largest consumers of U.S. corn, Mexico and Canada, were not included in the list of countries subject to tariffs provided additional relief to the corn market.
However, adverse weather conditions, including severe storms in states preparing for planting, may delay the start of sowing in the U.S., creating uncertainty in the market. Overall, the corn sector is navigating a complex landscape marked by fluctuating prices, international trade tensions, and shifting weather patterns.
As the market continues to evolve, stakeholders are closely monitoring these developments, hoping for stability amidst the volatility. The interplay between domestic and international factors will be crucial in shaping the future of the corn industry in both Brazil and the United States.
