Copper Market Faces Volatile Trading Conditions Amid Price Drop

The global copper market is experiencing significant fluctuations as the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index reported a decline of 6.96 $/dmt, down to -22.88 $/dmt on March 21, 2025. This change marks a continued trend of price volatility amidst active trading conditions noted in recent weeks.

According to reports, the pricing coefficient for 20% grade domestic trade ore is currently fluctuating between 93% and 95%, indicating a tight market for high-quality ore. This week, a range of significant transactions occurred, including the results from several tenders that have attracted interest from leading traders.

During the week of March 15-21, 2025, key trading events unfolded including a 20,000 mt Frontier tender that was bid at a mid-price of -60 $/dmt, showcasing the competitiveness in the market. Notably, the Bisha tender, offering 10,000 mt, was won at a higher price point of -40 $/dmt with loading periods set for April and May. These transactions exemplify the lively state of the copper concentrate market as stakeholders continuously navigate price changes.

The Lao mine also made headlines during this period as another trader successfully secured a tender for 20,000 mt scheduled for May and June at a low TC of -50 $/dmt. Additional tenders included another trader's successful bid for 10,000 mt at a mid-TC of -60 $/dmt, with loading expected in November and December. A massive 100,000 mt tender is expected for 2026 as well.

KGHM, a major player in the copper mining sector, also participated actively during this week, tendering 10,000 mt for June loading, with plans for further quantities in Q3 and significant amounts in 2026. This strategic movement signals KGHM's optimism amid fluctuating prices and indicates a long-term commitment to the copper market.

Unfortunately, not all news from the mining sector was positive. A tragic accident occurred at the East Zhezkazgan mine in Kazakhstan's Ulytau region, owned by Kazakhmys. Reports confirmed that a miner, born in 1994, fell into shaft 57 while unloading cargo, resulting in his immediate death. The company has indicated that production at the mine, which is known for its daily output of approximately 600 mt of copper, will only resume after comprehensive safety audits and improvements are established to prevent future accidents.

In other developments, Indian smelter Adani is currently in the furnace baking stage and is anticipated to start feeding material by the last week of March 2025. This advancement bodes well for operations and production schedules as they ramp up for the coming months.

Internationally, Indonesia's government issued a six-month copper concentrate export license to Freeport Indonesia. This critical license, allowing for the export of 1.27 million mt of copper concentrates, enhances Freeport's shipping options and market stability.

Meanwhile, on March 13, 2025, the government of Panama took a decisive step by approving the export of 120,000 mt of Cobre Panama copper concentrate. Some of this shipment is reportedly destined for the Onsan smelter in South Korea and three separate smelters in Japan, strategically avoiding the Chinese market, which has become increasingly competitive.

The SMM nine-port copper concentrate inventory as of March 21, 2025, stood at 643,500 mt, marking an increase of 68,300 mt from the previous week. Most of this surge originated from the Port of Jinzhou, where inventories increased by 57,000 mt. Such fluctuations in inventory levels highlight the ongoing adjustments suppliers are making in response to shifting market demands.

As the copper market continues to evolve, stakeholders within the industry remain vigilant, anticipating both challenges and opportunities in a landscape marked by production changes, safety concerns, and international trade dynamics. The coming weeks will undoubtedly reveal further developments as players in this sector respond to the rapid shifts in market conditions.